Foreign Ministers of Russia and Turkey discussed an alternative to the grain deal

On August 31, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan discussed regional and international issues in Moscow on the eve of the meeting between the presidents of the two countries. They also considered the initiative of Russian President Vladimir Putin to supply 1 million tons of Russian grain to Turkey at a reduced price for subsequent processing at Turkish mills and shipment to the world’s most needy countries. “This issue is also being discussed with the participation of our friends from Qatar, who are ready to participate in the financial aspects of this initiative,” Lavrov said during a press conference following the talks with Fidan. On September 1, the Turkish diplomat plans to hold talks with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

For his part, Fidan thanked his Russian counterpart for Russia’s help in eliminating the consequences of the earthquake in the east of the country and forest fires in the Istanbul region. He noted that Ankara will continue to make efforts to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. “We proceed from the fact that there can be no winners in a war, and there are no losers in a just world,” Fidan added. The Turkish minister’s visit to Moscow comes on the eve of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s planned visit to Russia. On August 29, the Haberturk TV channel, citing Turkish diplomats familiar with the situation, reported that bilateral talks would be held in Sochi on September 4. The Kremlin confirmed the information about the imminent negotiations, but did not disclose the details.

Before leaving for Moscow, Fidan also made a two-day visit to Kyiv, where he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his counterpart Dmitry Kuleba. During the negotiations, he discussed with them the terms of the resumption of the grain deal. Russia suspended participation in the grain deal on 17 July. Moscow justified this decision by the lack of progress in the implementation of the Russian part of the deal, which involves reconnecting Rosselkhozbank to the SWIFT payment system and resuming the operation of the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline. On July 19, Bloomberg, citing data from the Ukragroconsult agency, reported that after the termination of the Black Sea initiative, Ukrainian grain exports fell by a third – from 4.8 million tons in June to 3.2 million tons of grain in the four weeks to August 15. According to the agency, Ukrainian companies redirected all their exports through ports on the Danube River, but transportation costs along this route increased by 50%. On August 31, Lavrov once again stated that Russia can return to the deal only if all the conditions for it, fixed in this agreement, are met.

Discussing an alternative format for grain supplies, Ankara and Moscow pursue different goals, said Iqbal Durre, Associate Professor at the Department of Foreign Regional Studies of Moscow State Linguistic University. For Turkey, these supplies represent an economic benefit. For the Russian side, the new supply mechanism will help reduce sanctions risks, as well as demonstrate to the West that Russia can export grain, despite the existing restrictions.

Russia does not benefit from either the past or the currently proposed method of grain supply, says Alexei Fenenko, Associate Professor of the Department of International Security at the Faculty of World Politics of Moscow State University. “There is probably hope that third world countries would appreciate our gesture, but the vote in the General Assembly shows that no one appreciated this: they either abstain or vote against Russia,” the expert noted.

Other topics of consultations between the foreign ministers, according to Durre, may be the humanitarian situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, which has actually been under blockade since April after Baku installed its checkpoint in the Lachin corridor, and the situation around Syria. “In the first case, the parties will focus on discussing the possibility of overcoming the humanitarian crisis. And in the second Ankara hopes for Moscow’s assistance in organizing negotiations with Bashar al-Assad,” the expert noted.

Since July 26, a convoy of trucks with humanitarian cargo has accumulated on the Armenian side of the state border to deliver them to the region, the Azerbaijani authorities refuse to let them through, arguing that crossing the border with food trucks should be carried out in accordance with the customs legislation and the constitution of Azerbaijan. Instead, they suggest that humanitarian organizations use the alternative route Agdam – Askeran on the Azerbaijani side.

On August 29, the Azerbaijani Red Crescent Society tried to send two trucks with 40 tons of flour to Karabakh along this road, but the convoy was blocked by Armenian residents and Russian peacekeepers at the entrance to the region. On the same day, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, in a telephone conversation with French leader Emmanuel Macron, said that the road to Lachin would open only after the road from Aghdam was opened. The humanitarian situation in Karabakh also provoked an internal political crisis in Stepanakert. On August 31, the leader of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, Arayik Harutyunyan, resigned.

According to Fenenko, during the talks between the ministers in Moscow, the parties are unlikely to be able to work out a solution to overcome the crisis in Karabakh. “Armenia is trying to block the negotiation process. Moreover, Yerevan is pursuing a more pro-Western policy, hoping for their help in rearming its army, which could lead to the resumption of the active phase of the conflict,” the expert concluded.