Forecasts diverged in scenarios – Newspaper Kommersant No. 165 (7366) dated 09/08/2022
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The new FocusEconomics macroeconomic consensus forecast assumes a 7% fall in Russian GDP this year (a month ago, in the July forecast, it was minus 8.1%). These expectations are markedly different from the assessment given by Vladimir Putin at yesterday’s Eastern Economic Forum meeting that the economic decline in 2022 will be insignificant – 2% or slightly more. A day earlier, Minister of Economy Maxim Reshetnikov spoke about a decline of 2.9% (in 2023 – by 0.9%) in the same place. It should be noted that the heads of state-owned banks present at the forum did not agree with such estimates – the head of Sberbank German Gref said that he was still waiting for a fall in GDP by 4.5% this year and a recession in 2023, the head of VTB Andrey Kostin said about minus 4% and minus 1.5%, respectively.
Maxim Reshetnikov believes that GDP will switch to quarterly growth by the end of 2022, the FocusEconomics consensus forecast sees a transition to positive dynamics in the seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter measurement in the first quarter of 2023, after which the growth rate will be slightly positive. For 2023, the consensus forecast, compared to the estimates given a month ago, is noticeably reduced, from 2.5% to 3%, due to a deterioration in the dynamics of consumption and investment.
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economy, starting from 2024, in the base scenario, growth is expected to be 2.6% with a further 3% growth trajectory, and by 2030, economic growth may be about 17% compared to 2021. The FocusEconomics consensus is noticeably more pessimistic and sees Russia’s economic growth at 1.3% by 2026, while the world will return on average to the 3% growth desired by the Russian authorities. According to the Minister of Economy, it is supposed to accelerate to such rates through the construction of infrastructure for the export of raw materials to China and the transfer of industry to the “partial State Planning Committee” mode. The minister at the forum noted that there are other scenarios, but urged to focus on the basic one. “There are scenarios that are called “all the fears of the world”, but we must understand that we use these scenarios in order to compare what will happen if we implement certain programs or do not implement them. These scenarios should be treated as working horror stories – these are analytical calculations.
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