Forecast to be confirmed – Newspaper Kommersant No. 206 (7407) dated 08.11.2022

The main issues of the UN climate conference, which opened last Sunday in Egypt, are finance, adaptation to climate change, as well as (on an informal level) the impact of military operations in Ukraine on the global climate and energy agenda. Official representatives of the Russian Federation say that the country does not abandon its obligations, however, according to experts, the real economic situation in the country in the coming years may adjust these plans.

The UN Climate Summit (COP-27) in Sharm el-Sheikh will run for two weeks, its program includes official negotiations, meetings and statements of officials (including heads of state) at the political level, and a number of informal events of scientific and public organizations , regions, cities and companies. Opening the conference, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said yesterday that climate change is happening at a “catastrophic rate” and the world is “rushing down the highway to climate hell” and called on all countries to do more to combat climate change by concluding an additional “climate solidarity pact”. » on new efforts to keep global warming within 1.5°C.

An analysis of global climate change, prepared for the conference by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), fixes that the increase in global temperature by the end of the century will be 2.5–2.8°C (the goal of the Paris Climate Agreement is 2°C and the goal is 1 5°C), greenhouse gas emissions are growing and will increase by 10.6% by 2030 compared to 2010 (the UN panel on climate change fixes the need to reduce them by 45% by 2030 to achieve the goals of the PS). Because of this, the cost of climate adaptation in developing countries will increase to $340 billion per year by 2030 (in 2021, developed countries promised to transfer $40 billion per year for adaptation of developing countries by 2025). Developing countries themselves propose to increase both the amount of such funding (now no more than a quarter of all “climate” funds), and the share of grants in it (now – a quarter, the rest – loans). It should be noted that the decision taken back in 2015 to increase the overall level of climate finance to $100 billion a year has also not yet been implemented – now it is $85 billion (including funds from the UN Green Climate Fund, national aid agencies, international development banks and private investment – a separate issue, how they are counted).

Formally, the Russian military operation in Ukraine is not mentioned on the agenda of the summit, but its impact on the global climate and energy agenda is obvious: many experts fear a shift in focus from climate to more pressing issues of security, economic downturn and stability of energy supplies. In addition, we are talking about the redirection of funds from developed countries intended for “climate” assistance to developing countries for military spending. However, the long-term global trend towards decarbonization, green development and energy transition is likely to be accelerated by events in Ukraine – this is also confirmed by the recent report of the International Energy Agency “World Energy Outlook 2022”.

The Russian Federation officially confirms the relevance of the climate agenda for it both at the international and at the country level – this follows from the President’s speeches at the Valdai Forum and the statements of his climate adviser Ruslan Edelgeriev and Deputy Minister of Economy Ilya Torosov. The authorities assess the global green agenda as neutral even in the situation of the current conflict with the West, and also count on new tracks of environmental cooperation with other regions of the world, including the BRICS. Mr. Torosov continues to state the importance for the Russian Federation of promoting the topics of technological neutrality (primarily nuclear and hydropower as carbon-neutral), access to low-carbon technologies and their removal from sanctions. Ruslan Edelgeriev in his public speeches also speaks about the importance of further discussion of the market mechanisms of PS (the basic rules of which were approved last year, their implementation is being discussed). However, as experts emphasize, most countries still plan to reduce emissions on their territory, and the volume of international trade in emission reduction quotas or units as a result of climate projects will be minimal.

It is also an open question for the world community to what extent Russia’s statements about its commitment to the climate policy are serious: plans to lower environmental standards for the automotive industry, companies’ proposals to abandon fines for burning associated petroleum gas and further “rollback” of environmental regulation, which business insists on due to sanctions against difficult access to international green finance and technology is unlikely to help in the implementation of climate policy. However, so far the “carbon” legislation in the Russian Federation has not undergone any changes, except for the development of a plan for the implementation of the Strategy for long-term low-carbon development (shifted to 2023).

Just last week, Igor Bashmakov, head of the Center for the Efficient Use of Energy – XXI Century (who has been developing low-carbon development models and strategies for the Russian Federation for many years) called the path to carbon neutrality in the Russian Federation “bumpy”. According to the economist, they “have not yet been studied and drawn, partly due to the lack of long-term models for the entire economy and for the main sectors of GHG emissions after 2050.” In all IEA scenarios, fossil fuel consumption peaks by 2030, and due to the loss of the largest export market, the role of the Russian Federation in international trade will decrease, and the “pivot to the East” of its energy-intensive economy will not be quick due to the fact that there are also requirements to low-carbon products. As a result, due to the expected decline in Russia’s GDP and population decline, forecasts for greenhouse gas emissions, climate plans and strategies will need to be adjusted, the expert believes.

Angelina Davydova