Following the results of the presidential campaign, “New People” overtook the LDPR in the ratings

On Friday, VTsIOM and FOM published the first party ratings, measurements of which were carried out after the presidential campaign. Polsters differed in their assessments. According to VTsIOM, “New People” came in third place, ahead of the LDPR for the first time in history, but FOM still leaves them in fourth place. Experts note that in these polls, Russians rather assessed not the parties, but the performance of their candidates in the last campaign, and they explain the discrepancy in the data by a difference in methodology.

On March 29, VTsIOM and FOM published the results of their first weekly measurements taken after the presidential election. So far they have not affected either Vladimir Putin’s ratings or the positions of the Cabinet of Ministers. Let us note that VTsIOM conducted its surveys by telephone from March 18 to 24, FOM conducted its surveys door-to-door from March 22 to 25.

The activities of the president, according to VTsIOM, are approved by 78.9% of Russians, the chairman of the government – 54.7%, the Cabinet of Ministers as a whole – 56.6%. 80.7% of respondents trust Vladimir Putin, 62.6% trust Mikhail Mishustin. According to the FOM, 84% of Russians evaluate Vladimir Putin’s work positively, and the same 84% trust him. 58% of respondents also believe that the government is working well, 56% give this assessment of the activities of Mikhail Mishustin. All these indicators are generally consistent with previous pollster measurements during this year.

But with party ratings, everything is not so simple. According to VTsIOM data, the level of support for the United Russia party decreased by 2.4 percentage points over the week and amounted to 41.6% (respondents were asked the question “Which party would you vote for if elections were held next Sunday?”) .

In turn, the rating of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and “New People” increased by 1 percentage point. As a result, the Communists confidently occupy second place with 9.4%, and “New People” – third with 8.3%. The LDPR, having lost 0.4 p.p. per week, moved to fourth place (7.9%), and “A Just Russia – For Truth” closes the ranking with 3.3% (-0.1 p.p. per week ). Note that the statistical error of VTsIOM polls is 1%.

According to the FOM, the level of support for United Russia was 52% (+1 p.p. in two weeks). The Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Liberal Democratic Party share second place – each has 7%, but at the same time, the rating of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation in two weeks increased by 1 p.p., and the LDPR, on the contrary, fell by 2 p.p. “New people” remain in third place even with their 4%.

For the first time in history, “New People” surpassed the LDPR in ratings, states political scientist Alexander Kynev. In his opinion, the change in the situation is the result of the presidential campaign. Voters mark those they have recently seen and remembered. Over the past two years, the system of party preferences of Russians has been maintained by inertia, but it has long been clear that any noticeable event would destroy it, the expert believes. According to him, this event was the presidential election.

Whatever you say, the campaign of the candidate from the “New People” Vladislav Davankov became the brightest, notes Mr. Kynev.

As a result, the status quo has been disrupted and “there is a new reality.” The expert considers the growth of the “New People” rating to be a trend. The political scientist attributes the fact that the FOM did not notice it to the peculiarities of the methodology used. This is a door-to-door survey, and it always biases the result towards the loyalists, Mr. Kynev explains: “Critical-minded ordinary people now simply do not open their doors to strangers, so their opinion does not fall into the sample.”

INSOMAR Director of Political Analysis Viktor Poturemsky also believes that Russians’ assessment of political parties was greatly influenced by the presidential elections. “Now this is generally more an assessment of the work of party candidates, rather than the parties themselves. The only thing I would specifically focus on is United Russia and SRZP, which did not formally nominate their own candidate, but supported Vladimir Putin. United Russia as a whole maintains the plateau in its rating precisely due to the direct association with Vladimir Putin (the decline in the positions of the party in power, according to VTsIOM, the expert considers insignificant.— “Kommersant”). But SRZP doesn’t have it, that’s why she loses. As for the troika of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party and the New People, now based on the ratings we can state that there is definitely no second party. Their positions are close,” says the expert. He also reminds that regional elections are coming up in September and more attention will be paid to the party agenda. “So we’ll look at the dynamics. It is difficult to make long-term forecasts yet. Moreover, I think the parties will learn lessons from the campaign,” notes Mr. Poturemsky.

Anastasia Kornya, Andrey Vinokurov