Finally built – Newspaper Kommersant No. 15 (7460) dated 01/27/2023

In 2022, according to Rosstat, 102.7 million sq. m of housing, which was a record. In general, for the year, growth was demonstrated by the rates of commissioning of both apartment buildings, despite the negative dynamics in the second half of the year, and individual housing – however, after the November fall, it continued to decline in December. And if in 2023 the government and market participants are not particularly worried, so far, commissioning is forecast at the level of about 100 million square meters. m, then future prospects are already associated with certain risks, caused, in particular, by last year’s slowdown in mortgage lending and, accordingly, the increase in buyers’ funds in escrow accounts.

For housing construction in general, 2022 ended quite successfully – according to the latest data from Rosstat, published yesterday, 102.7 million square meters were commissioned. m of housing, which is 11% more than a year earlier. The commissioning of apartment buildings (MKD) at the end of the year amounted to 45.5 million square meters. m – an increase of 4.7% compared to the results of 2021, when developers commissioned 43.5 million square meters. m. In December, this sector showed an increase of 5.8% in annual terms (8.2 million vs. 7.8 million in December 2021), which was the first “positive” monthly indicator since June, when the MKD segment lost compared to last year. However, an increase in volumes by the end of the year is a very typical phenomenon for industrial construction.

The IZHS sector, as annual statistics showed, in December, on the contrary, continued to fall – if during the year private housing construction “pulled” all housing construction with it and in general reached 57.2 million square meters in a year. m, which is 16.5% more than in 2021, then in the last month the commissioning amounted to 1.2 million sq. m, which is worse than the December value of 2021 by 63%. Recall that for the first time in a long time, the volume of commissioning of individual housing construction collapsed in November – to 1.76 million square meters. m, which is about three times lower than in November 2021. The rather sharp drop in individual housing construction, in particular, is explained both by an objective slowdown in construction and the exhaustion of statistical factors – in particular, cadastral registration for gasification of houses, which made it possible to “enter” pre-existing houses (see “Kommersant” dated November 15). As noted yesterday at the round table “Mechanisms for stimulating the development of the housing construction market: project financing and mortgages” in the State Duma, the head of the apparatus of the association “National Association of Housing Developers” Kirill Kholopik, in the future the data on the commissioning of individual housing construction will be “real”, but for complete purity he also suggested connect electricity only after the house is registered with the cadastral register.

Expectations from housing construction for this year, taking into account the existing backlog and project declarations, are already quite optimistic – as Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin said earlier, it is planned to maintain the bar for housing commissioning at the level of 100 million square meters. m. According to the head of NOSTROY Anton Glushkov, this volume can be considered “guaranteed” – more than 50% of the housing that is being commissioned this year has already “found its investors”, and “even with a halving of the issuance of mortgages, the volume of housing which is currently under construction with commissioning in 2023, will be sold in full.

However, as follows from the speeches of the round table participants, the prospects for commissioning housing in the coming years are causing concern. Thus, Deputy Minister of Construction Nikita Stasishin noted that in 2022, according to preliminary estimates, it was not possible to fulfill the plan to increase the mortgage portfolio by 2.5 trillion rubles – “500 billion rubles. did not come to construction, which is a serious shortfall in terms of filling escrow accounts.” As Anton Glushkov added, the “failure in mortgages” will begin to manifest itself from the first half of 2024, the prospects are somewhat clouded by the negative dynamics of the growth of funds in escrow accounts, first recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022 (in November they decreased by 25 billion rubles, which indicates both an increase in account openings after the completion of projects, and a reduction in demand in the primary market). With this in mind, it cannot be ruled out that in 2023 project financing for developers may rise in price.

According to Alexey Nidens, Deputy General Director of DOM.RF, now the growth of mortgages in new buildings is approaching the limit (70% of transactions are with mortgages, of which 90% are within the framework of preferential programs), and therefore it is necessary to develop other areas. Huge potential, according to him, is in individual housing construction, where the availability of loans is a deterrent. It should be noted that one of the factors in the growth of the private sector in 2022 was also the spread of preferential mortgage programs for individual construction – for the year, according to DOM.RF, 33 thousand loans were issued for individual housing construction against 10 thousand in 2021 (see “ Kommersant, January 26) and further growth is expected. As the president of the National Agency for Low-Rise and Cottage Construction, Elena Nikolaeva, added, as incentive measures, it is also necessary to consider the possibility of bringing communications to individual housing construction at the expense of mortgages. However, we add, taking into account the “failures” of the last two months, as well as the lack of accounting for private houses under construction, it is still very difficult to predict the further dynamics of individual housing construction.

Evgenia Kryuchkova