Features of national mortality – Newspaper Kommersant No. 240 (7441) of 12/26/2022

Researchers from the Higher School of Economics studied the influence of local factors on the final mortality as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic (it was estimated as the difference between actual and predicted mortality). As elsewhere in the world, the contribution to the spread and, accordingly, the mortality from infection of migratory activity is shown. Also, a high level of economic activity of the population worked “for her”. At the same time, it turned out that the share of pensioners in the population of the region, on the contrary, is associated with excess mortality in an inverse relationship, probably due to the tendency of older people to comply with restrictions and caution.

In Russia, excess mortality during the coronavirus pandemic could be associated with a set of socio-economic factors that differ from those recorded for developed countries. Analysts of the Department of Applied Economics of the Higher School of Economics Marina Kolosnitsina and Mikhail Chubarov came to this conclusion in their study. As the authors of the work point out, researchers of the coronavirus pandemic in developed countries found that a number of factors in addition to the state’s anti-epidemic measures, from the structure of the population to the number of green spaces in cities, influenced the spread of the virus. In their work, they tried to determine whether it is possible to confirm such a connection for Russian statistics on excess mortality of the population – we recall that this indicator, which reflects the excess of the real number of deaths over the forecast, was recognized as the most adequate way to take into account all those who died as a result of the pandemic, both in the Russian Federation, so in the world.

According to a study by the Higher School of Economics, among demographic factors, a positive relationship between excess mortality and the number of migrants has been confirmed – both in other countries and in the Russian Federation, coronavirus infection spread faster in those regions where population mobility turned out to be higher. At the same time, excess mortality turned out to be relatively low in regions with a higher proportion of pensioners among the population. The authors explain this correlation by the fact that people in this age group, firstly, do not work and objectively have fewer social contacts, and secondly, they are more careful and voluntarily comply with the requirements of self-isolation.

Among the economic factors that increase excess mortality, the authors note, is a relatively high per capita income. In richer regions, the level of business activity is higher and more people continued to work even during quarantine, the authors of the study suggest, but note that foreign work showed a reverse relationship. On the contrary, the influence of another economic factor, unemployment, which also turned out to be positively associated with excess mortality, was confirmed both for the Russian Federation and for other countries. It can be assumed that people who lost their jobs due to the closure of enterprises were forced to look for vacancies or part-time jobs and could not work remotely.

It should be noted that the conclusions of the authors of the study generally correspond to the rating of regions that can be compiled on the basis of Rosstat statistics – Moscow, St. However, they are also leaders in terms of the proportion of the elderly and traditionally demonstrate a low unemployment rate.

Anastasia Manuylova