Experts told whether the ruble will fall to the level of 30 per dollar

Economist Belyaev: “The economy should show serious growth rates”

On July 25, in the morning and afternoon trading on the Moscow Exchange, the ruble continued to strengthen against the dollar and the euro. The fact is all the more gratifying that the previous evening it also rose in price against these currencies. Is this a 180-degree turn and going on the offensive? Or a temporary phenomenon is not justified?

By noon on July 26, the dollar fell below 90 rubles for the first time since July 5. And the euro, in turn, fell below 100 rubles for the first time since July 14. As a result, the “American” fell in price by 50 kopecks, to 89.87 rubles, and the euro by 77.2 kopecks, to 99.7 rubles.

According to financial analyst, candidate of economic sciences Mikhail Belyaev, there is no need to talk about any serious strengthening of the national currency.

– To do this, it is necessary that the economy showed a fairly serious growth rate, – he says. – And now there is an improvement in the situation.

– But the course is getting stronger! Then what factors can you explain it?

– For example, the fact that the tax period is approaching increases the demand for rubles. There are some positive aspects in the trade balance… But all this, in my opinion, is pure water conjuncture. It is unlikely that the rate will reach 89 or 89.1 per dollar. It will fluctuate around 90: 89.99 for the “American”. About the same I can assume for the euro, only around 100.

– That is, 30 rubles per dollar, as it once was in our history, we will not see?

– That’s absolutely right. Until there is a serious set of pace and efficiency within our economy.

– Recently, the Central Bank raised the key rate by one percentage point, now it is 8.5%. Does this play to strengthen the ruble?

– Most likely, the Central Bank thinks so. And he attributes it to his success in monetary policy. In fact, the base rate of 7.5% stifled our economy, and 8.5% even more so. The logic is this: an increase in the key rate means that foreign currency will come from other countries. Its supply will increase, and the ruble will appreciate.

Such a scheme operated in the 1970-1980s in developed countries. But now, for many reasons, this mechanism practically does not work.

– Is there any hope that the yuan, which will be put into free sale next week, will strengthen the ruble exchange rate?

– It cannot be ruled out as a temporary factor. But in the corridor of plus or minus 2-3% in different directions, it will not be able to radically affect the strengthening.