Experts told when the Russians will see the dollar at 100 rubles

The dollar reached the mark of 99 rubles, after which it fell slightly below this value. This is evidenced by trading data on the Moscow Exchange in the afternoon of August 11. The last time such an expensive dollar was seen in March last year, shortly after the start of the CBO. The euro also did not lag behind and during the trading session broke through the mark of 109 rubles per unit of the European currency. Why the ruble sank so much and how its fall will affect the lives of Russians, MK found out from experts.

In recent days, the ruble has been updating anti-records against the dollar and the euro, which has not happened since March 2022. However, at that moment, the Russian financial market was shocked by the introduction of the first packages of sanctions and was under pressure from geopolitical uncertainty after the start of the special operation. Over the past year, as the government regularly claims, the domestic economy has adapted to the restrictions, which is illustrated even by the growth of gross domestic product (GDP).

For example, on Friday, August 11, when the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange reached 99 rubles, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said at a meeting on economic issues that in the first half of the year our country had reached positive values ​​in all key economic indicators. GDP, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, increased by 1.5%, and in the second quarter of this year even more – by 4.6%.

The Prime Minister emphasized that the economy was able to adapt to modern challenges and at the same time showed steady growth based on domestic demand. Moreover, Russia is also highly appreciated abroad. In early August, the World Bank updated the statistics for 2022, where in the ranking of countries in terms of GDP at purchasing power parity, Russia entered the top 5 leading economies in the world, overtaking Germany and coming close to Japan.

However, in the foreign exchange market, these achievements are invisible. Against the backdrop of regular statements from the TV about the “imminent death of the dollar”, its exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange shows that it will be livelier than many other currencies. As Yevgeny Lashkov, a member of the board of directors of the Dome Foundation investment company, recalled, the trend towards the weakening of the ruble has been steadily going on since December 2022. From January to July, he lost almost a third of his value, but this, as it turned out, is not the limit. In social networks, looking at the sad retreat of the national currency, they are already joking that “the ruble has no goal, but there is only a way.”

“The main factor in the weakening of the ruble is the lack of supply of foreign currency on the domestic market amid high demand,” says BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov. — This is due to a reduction in export earnings due to a decrease in physical volumes of deliveries and prices for raw materials. Also, the ruble is under pressure from the outflow of capital. If the rate of ruble weakening continues, then the level of 100 rubles per dollar will be reached on August 15.”

At the moment, technical and even fundamental factors play a very limited role in dollar and euro trading: there are almost no speculators or investors left in this market, now there are only those who really need to buy or sell dollars. “Russian exporters need less and less to sell dollars to settle with the budget, but those who are trying to withdraw money from Russia and importers still need them,” Artyom Shakhurin, an expert at IVA Partners Investment Company, continues the conversation. “That’s why the auctions go, basically, in the same direction.”

Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Alexei Zabotkin said that the regulator does not see risks for financial stability in the weakening of the ruble, but would like to reduce market volatility, for which he decided to suspend purchases of foreign currency by the Ministry of Finance as part of the budget rule.

True, judging by the results, these measures were not enough, since the next wave of ruble devaluation observed in August was quite unexpected for the population. After all, earlier it was said from the high stands that the exchange rate of 90 rubles per dollar suits the powerful of the world.

The Bank of Russia explained that the weakening of the ruble is affected by export-import operations. However, a number of experts carefully hint that if the “powerful ones” wanted to, they could stabilize the course at the desired levels.

“The solution here is quite simple – political will,” says financial expert Alexei Krichevsky. – It’s just that the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank should receive an order that it’s time to end the devaluation and return the ruble somewhere in the region of 80-85 per dollar. And now all the conditions are being created for this: the expenditure side of the budget is stabilizing, oil and gas revenues are growing due to the reduction in the discount of Urals oil to Brent. That is, there is no such thing as it is fundamentally impossible, now it needs a decision from above. For example, reconsidering the attitude that exporters can leave their proceeds abroad or raising the minimum threshold for its sale.”

With current oil prices, this seemingly simple action for the authorities will cause a rather serious strengthening of the ruble on the horizon of a month or two. It makes no sense to say that the Russian currency will return somewhere around last summer, that is, up to 50 rubles per dollar, but it is quite possible to reach 75-80 rubles per unit of US currency, the expert says.

But, probably, the “powerful of this world” are more happy that there will now be more money in the Russian budget, and it will be possible to continue to finance all security and defense issues, as well as fulfill social obligations, and with a margin. And the fact that inflation will rise and this will have a bad effect on the incomes of the population is perceived as a side effect that needs to be put up with.

Recall that, according to a study by the Higher School of Economics, the share of imported goods in Russia is large and amounts to about 75% for the non-food segment, so the weakening ruble will quickly be reflected in an increase in the cost of almost everything. Medicines, clothing, electronics, food products imported into our country, vacations abroad and services will increase in price. As Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov pointed out, this will mean a decrease in real incomes of the population, at least until there is an indexation of salaries, pensions, an increase in the minimum wage, etc.

It is possible to protect your wallet from fluctuations in the exchange rate, but this will require additional efforts and skills. “As a protective tool, you can offer investments in shares of Russian companies, they rise in price faster than the dollar,” Shakhurin recommended. – Well, and gold – its value continues to be guided by the prices of the world market in terms of the ruble exchange rate.