Experts selected favorites on the exchange

The past year has pleased participants in the collective investment market. The ruble and dollar indices grew steadily, which affected the activity of private investors. According to the Moscow Exchange, in 2023 the number of individuals with brokerage accounts on this site increased by 6.7 million to 29.7 million. The share of private investors in stock trading volume averaged 79%, in bond trading volume – 32% .

At the beginning of the year, the general positive mood has not gone away. Dividend cut-offs passed in early January; actual payments from Gazprom Neft, Sovcomflot, Tatneft, and Magnit are expected in the near future, which allows us to count on an influx of new liquidity into the market.

In the near future, it seems that the intrigue with the dividends of metallurgists will be resolved. Earlier, the general director of Severstal stated that the issue of dividends would be considered at a meeting of the board of directors.

Statistics for the beginning of 2024 on the inflow of funds into pension and mutual investment funds are not yet available, but turning to the data for 2023, we can state that interest in collective investments on the part of the population is growing, noted BCS World of Investments expert Anna Kokoreva. Thus, according to the Moscow Exchange, in 2023, the value of the net assets of exchange-traded mutual investment funds (MUIF) in the money market, against the background of tightening monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, increased 15 times, to 200 billion rubles. “Investors are interested in dividend stocks and shares with high growth potential. At the beginning of the year, the market has high hopes for metallurgists,” added Kokoreva.

As Yulia Melnikova, an analyst at Alfa Capital Management Company, told MK, today the share of blue chips (shares of Sberbank, Gazprom, Lukoil) is high in the portfolios of private investors.

Approximately this year, Russian companies will pay dividends in the amount of 4.9 trillion rubles. Taking into account free-float, it turns out that about 1.6 trillion rubles can reach the market. Solid jackpot!

Dividend yield on the Russian market in 2024, according to Digital Broker analyst Anna Buylakova, could be about 8%, while OFZ offer a yield of 11%. In such conditions, in her opinion, it is important to look not only at dividend yield in the near future, but also at the ability of issuers to increase them in the future. “The issuers in the consumer sector who are currently not paying dividends due to their foreign registration (X5 Group, Rusagro) may be a pleasant surprise,” the analyst noted.

Deputy Director of the Analytical Department of Freedom Finance Global Georgy Vashchenko noted another trend that is gaining momentum – the “race” of players in low-liquidity securities. Quotes of a number of 3rd and 4th echelon stocks grew by tens of percent last year. The number of securities that decreased in price was less than two dozen, while the number of shares that were in the black was two hundred – an 11-fold advantage! “100 stocks are up at least 80% in 2023.” One day there will be a reversal, bubbles will burst, inexperienced players will lose money. Funds (collective investment instruments), as a rule, avoid investing in low-liquidity securities; the profitability of professional managers this year may beat the profitability of most private investors,” warns Vashchenko.

“The main positive factor for the Moscow Exchange index is increased budget expenditures, accelerating economic growth, and a weak ruble,” said Timur Nigmatullin, senior investment consultant at Finam Financial Group. — A negative factor is the high rate of the Bank of Russia. It is likely that the listed factors will be in balance for a significant part of the year.

“In February, the Moscow Exchange index will be influenced by geopolitics, energy prices, ruble dynamics and corporate news. At the end of the month, a number of companies will publish annual reports under IFRS, which will make it possible to assess the success of Russian business and calculate dividend yield,” Kokoreva believes. While the Moscow Exchange index is trading sideways, its upper limit is located at 3280–3300 points, the lower – around 3000 points. “For further movement upward, strong triggers are needed, which do not exist yet. Perhaps the reporting and dividend promises will inspire investors. We assume that by the end of winter the index will come close to the upper limit of the “flatness” of 3,300 points. The target for 12 months for the Moscow Exchange index is 4,000 points, taking into account dividends,” the analyst noted.

Among the next significant events, Yulia Melnikova noted the upcoming meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the key rate, scheduled for February 16. In her opinion, the reversal of monetary policy and the reduction of the risk-free rate are potentially positive for the stock market. She advises private investors to pay attention to public companies that offer dividend yields higher than the deposit (Tatneft, Transneft, Surgutneftegaz). And this does not take into account the potential increase in the price of securities. “Such shares will not only beat inflation, but will also protect savings from ruble devaluation, since securities of issuers that earn foreign currency earnings are traded on the public market,” the analyst explained.

Anna Buylakova expects the highest dividend yield in oil and gas sector securities. Dividend yield for the next 12 months. in the preferred shares of Surgutneftegaz is about 24.3%, in the preferred shares of Bashneft – 14.7%, in the shares of Lukoil – 14.6%.

The list of favorites for the next six months, according to Kokoreva, includes Severstal, Mechel-AO, Tatneft-AO, Lukoil, Sberbank-AO, TCS Group and Magnit. These shares, as the expert believes, retain high growth potential; their profitability can significantly exceed inflation.

“It is better for a private investor to increase the investment period to three years and not try to “catch” short-term trends, but form a more balanced opinion. First of all, it is worth focusing on the fundamental indicators of issuers, which confirm the reliability of investments,” believes Melnikova.

According to Anna Buylakova, when choosing securities, investors should rely on financial goals, risk tolerance and investment horizon. For example, a long-term conservative investor may be interested in locking in double-digit OFZ yields for a long period. For an investor with a higher risk tolerance and a more active approach to investment management, you can take a closer look at corporate floaters, where investors can count on more interesting returns compared to OFZs, but for a shorter period.

When choosing shares, Anna Kokoreva advises paying attention to the sustainability of the company’s business in the current realities, assessing the current financial position (what cash flow the company generates, how much debt it has and how it is being serviced), paying attention to the dividend policy and the dates of the last payments (how stable they are) , development strategy, operating results. In her opinion, you should not invest in very volatile securities, securities in which there is no volume, in companies whose business model you do not understand.

According to Georgy Vashchenko, private investors should avoid securities with low liquidity and not rush to buy securities that suddenly “shoot up” in the absence of a visible reason or on rumors. “Quick earnings are often accidental. And if you managed to immediately make money on the stock market, the main thing is not to be captured by false illusions,” the analyst reminds. In his opinion, it is better not to hold a losing position for a long time, unlike a profitable one. Set goals, entry and exit levels by time and price, and maintain discipline. “It is better to invest the bulk of the capital in value stocks, “eternal securities.” It is possible to beat passive index funds, but you need to spend time analyzing trends and financial statements. Part of the capital can be allocated to ideological, medium- and short-term securities, IPO. In addition, in order to succeed, a frequent investor should improve his level of financial literacy,” concluded Vashchenko.