Experts predicted changes in the real estate market due to the contribution on the family mortgage

President Putin instructed to extend the 20% payment norm

President Putin instructed the government to extend the rule on the down payment on a family mortgage and leave it at the same level of 20%. Meanwhile, earlier the authorities seriously considered the possibility of increasing the first payment to 30% in order to regulate the issue and cool the market. What does the future hold for the family mortgage program? Will banks continue to approve loans en masse and at what percentage? Real estate experts told MK about this.

Head of State Vladimir Putin considers it necessary to extend the rule on a 20% contribution on a family mortgage. Meanwhile, the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, after raising the rate to 16%, said that the non-addressed preferential mortgage program should be completed, and the family mortgage program could be extended (currently valid until July 1, 2024), but with clarification of the parameters.

Previously, the managing partner of the real estate brokerage agency DOLGOV PRO, Alexander Kukarin, told MK that the main advantage of preferential programs is the reduced rate, which allows you to take out a mortgage at a fairly low interest rate. He also noted that family mortgages have limits on amounts (up to 12 million), which means that they mainly apply to the mass segment, that is, to the comfort class. Accordingly, this is why it was possible to conclude a large number of transactions in this segment.

In turn, independent real estate expert Alexey Krichevsky emphasized that family mortgages are not about a preferential program for new buildings, this is a case that existed before it. Plus, the demand for a subsidized family loan is still less than for a regular preferential mortgage, which has been the driver of price growth over the past 3.5 years.

“It’s still not worth saying that a family mortgage will have any fundamental impact on pricing,” notes MK’s interlocutor. — The market will react relatively calmly to this news – developers have a lot of other worries, such as how to sell off more apartments according to current parameters, so that the transition to a regular sales model would be a little easier, since there will be a good margin of safety. Although it already exists – over the years of the operation of preferential mortgages, some developers have increased their net profit by 5 times.”

As for whether it is correct to leave the minimum down payment level for a family mortgage at 20%, then, according to Krichevsky, banks should have more leverage here.

“If the borrower is potentially problematic, then his down payment should reach 35-40%. If the analysis shows that most likely there will be no problems, then 20-25%, the expert believes. — Statistically, the larger the down payment for an apartment, the less likely it is that the borrower will be late or go bankrupt. So, a compromise seems to be the legally established minimum level of 20% of the cost and the recommendation to banks from the regulator to try to bring the figure to 30%.”