Experts named scenario forks in the Russian economy in 2023

Experts from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) identified four scenarios for the development of the economy: activism, the second 2010s, a crisis without isolation, and a crisis. The first, most favorable option is possible provided that the growth rate of the world economy remains around 3%, relatively high energy prices, a quick partial lifting of sanctions and a policy of technological modernization, follows from the presentation prepared by Dmitry Belousov, Head of Analysis and Forecasting of Macroeconomic Processes of the Center for Macroeconomics.

The most unfavorable, crisis scenario will come in the event of a structural crisis in the world economy, a slow lifting of sanctions and a policy of situational stabilization of the Russian economy. According to the first option, Russia’s GDP in 2023 will move to growth, but by the end of the year it will still fall within 2%. The crisis scenario assumes a decline of more than 6%.

According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, the decline in Russia’s GDP in 2023 will be 0.8%. In 2022, according to the official estimate of the department, published at the end of September, the decline is expected at the level of 2.9%. But in December, President Vladimir Putin noted that the forecast had been improved: GDP should decline by about 2.5% by the end of the year. The Bank of Russia expects the economy to fall by 3–3.5% in 2022, and by 1–4% in 2023.