Experts justified the strengthening of the ruble against the backdrop of bad news

It would seem that, according to all the laws of market logic, against the backdrop of another round of geopolitical tensions (referendums in the liberated territories, partial mobilization, the threat of new sanctions), the ruble should have planned down. But our national currency in a difficult time of trials has gained some kind of previously unseen resilience. The ruble not only did not crumble, but in spite of everything, it strengthened its position to the highest level in recent months. Why the national currency ignores negative news and how long it will continue, experts told MK.

Over the past three days before the close of trading, the ruble has strengthened against the dollar by 7%. If on September 21 the US dollar was at the level of 62 rubles, then by the close on Friday, September 23, it was already given 57 rubles. There is a lot of geopolitics in what is happening on the exchange, which, perhaps for the first time in history, supports our national currency, and does not weaken it. According to Evgeny Shimanovsky, vice-president of the Eurasian Business Alliance, the ruble should not be underestimated. “I think that the dollar will move in the range of 57-62 rubles,” he stressed. – Against the background of the fact that Russia is opposed by a large number of countries, and, in fact, the unipolar world is being overthrown before our eyes, the ruble has strengthened against the dollar by more than 25%. The fact is that the United States, by its decision to freeze $300 billion belonging to Russia, announced sanctions in words, but in reality carried out a partial default of the dollar. Money is a receipt of the country that issued it, and the United States has renounced its receipts in relation to the Russian Federation. This should be a negative signal for other countries. Also, Germany, as the main competitor in Europe to the US and Great Britain, by its actions in relation to our energy resources, worsens the economic situation, which has already led to the fact that the ratio of the euro to the dollar today is 0.98. On the stock exchange, the euro is already valued at 56 rubles, and this trend will continue. The Chinese yuan has not yet been pressured by the United States, but if we see an increase in the conflict in Taiwan, then most likely it will fall against the dollar, the expert is sure.

In addition to geopolitics, purely economic reasons also work to strengthen the ruble. As the chief analyst of Sovcombank Mikhail Vasilyev said, firstly, this is the September tax period, the peak of payments of which will be on September 26-28. “According to our estimates, the volume of September taxes to the budget will amount to 2.4 trillion rubles,” says the banker. “This is about 14% more than in August.” Georgy Svirin, a specialist in international financial markets at the Finmir marketplace, noted that, in theory, nothing prevents organizations from paying these monthly deductions to the budget, both at the beginning of the month and in the middle. But oil and gas companies prefer placing funds on short-term deposits or simply accumulate the entire amount, and only at the end of the month, a few days before payment, they begin to convert the received dollars, euros and other foreign currencies in which settlements with buyers took place. This leads to the traditional surge in demand for rubles on the stock exchange with the simultaneous sale of foreign currency.

Secondly, the risks of Western sanctions against the National Clearing Center (NCC) are increasing. If such restrictions are introduced, exchange trading in the dollar and euro will become impossible, and non-cash currency may be blocked. This reduces the attractiveness of foreign exchange savings and encourages our citizens and companies to get rid of the currencies of unfriendly countries.

Thirdly, a number of market participants expected an early weakening of the ruble due to the return of foreign currency purchases by the Ministry of Finance to reserves under the updated budget rule. On September 22, the government approved the draft budget for the next three years, but nothing was said about foreign exchange interventions. “The issue of returning the budget rule with the start of partial mobilization somehow hung in the air, and therefore it can be assumed that the authorities in the current conditions are not interested in the ruble depreciating very much,” believes Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. As a result, some investors decided that the budget rule would not work soon and began to close positions against the ruble, continues Vasiliev. In his opinion, until September 28, the ruble may continue to strengthen with the support of the tax period. The nearest reference points are the levels of 55 rubles per dollar, 54 rubles per euro and 7.8 rudders per yuan. According to Natalia Milchakova, the dollar may fall to 55 rubles and even to 54.5 rubles by the end of September, the same scenario is possible for the euro. However, this is the level, starting from which, the dollar and the euro at the end of the tax period can quickly return to 60 rubles.

True, by the end of the year, forecasts for the national currency are more pessimistic. “We expect a moderate weakening of the ruble by the end of the year to the levels of 65-70 rubles per dollar, 62-67 rubles per euro and 9.2-10 per yuan,” Mikhail Vasilyev said. The pressure on the ruble may come from falling commodity prices due to the global recession (Brent oil has already fallen from $120 per barrel to $85), a reduction in exports due to current or new Western sanctions. This will reduce the supply of currency on the Moscow Exchange. At the same time, demand for the currency could rise due to a recovery in imports as supply chains reorient from West to East, as well as the still possible resumption of purchases of foreign currency into reserves under the new fiscal rule, the analyst stressed.

So how is it better for Russians to keep their savings in such conditions? According to the head of the Department of World Financial Markets and Fintech of the Russian University of Economics. Plekhanov Denis Perepelitsa, it is not worth buying foreign currency to save money, since inflation in the world in all currencies is quite high, and it beats historical records for dollars and euros. It is better to save funds in metal accounts or invest in real estate and shares of Russian companies, which are now significantly undervalued. “Dollar and Euro — toxic, storing them on an account in most banks costs money, – Vasily Karpunin, head of the information and analytical content department of BCS World of Investments, continues the topic. “It’s easier to choose alternative currencies of friendly countries, for example, the Hong Kong dollar is iron-pegged to the US dollar.”

According to Natalya Milchakova, if long-term savings are needed, then it is better to open an account in the currency of one of the friendly countries in a bank in one of the EAEU states, for example, Kazakhstan. But before you decide to take such a step, you need to study very well the peculiarities of the legislation of a given country. And Yevgeny Shimanovsky even advises to remember gold as a “safe haven” for savings during periods of global cataclysms. “If you look at the situation in shorter intervals, we will see that during the crises of 2008, 2014, 2020, gold rose in price in rubles by 50-100% each time,” he points out. Moreover, it is best to buy gold bullion or invest in gold coins, the expert advises.