Experts have outlined the timing of the negative effect of the “ceiling” of oil prices

Will appear on the foreign exchange market within a month

On December 5, the sixth package of sanctions against Russia came into force in the European Union – an embargo on sea supplies of “black gold” from our state to European countries began to operate, and a “price ceiling” was introduced for this hydrocarbon raw material. The West is confident that such measures should finally undermine our economy. However, there was no decline in oil prices, and the ruble reacts very sluggishly to what is happening. Why the collapse of the domestic currency did not happen and what to expect from it in the coming weeks, experts told MK.

In the middle of the day on December 5, the dollar on the Moscow Exchange is trading at 62 rubles. For the euro they give a little more – almost 66 rubles. Compared with the close of trading on Friday, the situation has not changed much. Meanwhile, this Monday is full of negative events for the domestic currency. Firstly, the next, sixth in a row, package of sanctions came into force in the EU, in which the authorities of “unfriendly” countries tried to strike at Russian hydrocarbon exports: an oil embargo on the supply of Russian “black gold” began to operate. Secondly, a “ceiling” for oil prices has been introduced, which the G7 and the EU agreed on the eve of $60 per barrel. In the West, they believe that such measures should deal another serious blow to the Russian economy. However, the result is the opposite so far: a barrel of Brent in the Asian markets gives more than $86, which is 1.3% more than before the introduction of restrictions. The decision of OPEC + to keep the quota for the production of black gold at the same level, adopted on December 4, is considered to be an indirect support for the hydrocarbon market. But global markets have been especially positive about the lifting of covid restrictions in China. After all, if the “global factory” of the Celestial Empire is ready to operate at full capacity before the New Year, then it will need oil, which is why the price of a barrel is growing.

The ruble at the beginning of trading on Monday tried to follow the quotes of “black gold” and strengthen, having won back the decline of early December, but by the middle of the day it returned to Friday’s values.

Meanwhile, experts differed on how much the new restrictions would put pressure on the national currency. Thus, according to Mikhail Zeltser, an expert on the stock market at BCS Mir Investments, the factor of the upcoming embargo has been known for a long time, so the introduction of a price ceiling does not have a fundamental impact on the exchange rate, but only strengthens the emerging trend of the ruble weakening. The main thing is the trajectory of foreign trade operations: the growth rate of exports is slowing down due to sanctions uncertainty, while imports are actively recovering due to “friendly” Asian and Middle Eastern economies. The surplus in the export-import ratio is narrowing, which puts pressure on the ruble and is the reason for its retreat from the autumn positions.

But there is another opinion. “The effect of the measures of the European Union, the G7 and Australia on the maximum permissible level of oil prices can be seen in mid-January and beyond,” said Alfa Capital analyst Alexander Dzhioev. Until then, there will be a transitional period, during which the contracted oil will be delivered to buyers without problems.

According to TeleTrade analyst Alexei Fedorov, the possible negative reaction of the ruble to the introduction of limiting oil prices is associated with a likely reduction in Russia’s commodity exports in the event of refusal to deliver to countries that support the “price ceiling”. In this case, Russia’s balance of payments surplus, which is largely based on high oil prices and rather high volumes of oil exports, will shrink and support for the ruble will begin to weaken. Previously, it was expected that the collapse of Russia’s balance of payments surplus would occur mainly only due to the recessionary fall in oil prices, as well as the restoration of imports to our country. However, the “price ceiling” adds another negative factor to the ruble exchange rate equation. If, as promised by the Russian authorities, deliveries to countries maintaining marginal prices stop after the transition period on January 19, 2023, then the inflow of foreign exchange earnings to Russia will decrease and the foreign exchange rate will be able to go down from 60-62 rubles per dollar to 68-70 rubles . And if the decline in oil foreign exchange earnings coincides in time with a recessionary drop in oil prices, which cannot be ruled out, then the depreciation of the ruble in early 2023 may turn out to be even stronger. Naturally, participants in foreign exchange trading put such risks into quotes in advance, so that during December the exchange rate of the Russian currency will be pulled up to values ​​at the level of 65-66 rubles per dollar, 67-68 rubles per euro and 9.3-9.5 rubles per dollar. yuan, the expert believes.