Experts gave a forecast for housing prices: they will decrease by 20%

The fall in the cost of apartments was provided by the departed citizens of Russia

Three events in September made housing lending in Russia even less accessible to solve the “housing problem” than before. We are talking about the announced mobilization, the position of the head of the Central Bank regarding the rates subsidized by developers and the decision to increase the risk coefficient for mortgages with a down payment of less than 10% from December 1.

And although the number of applications for the sale of housing in Moscow alone has tripled after mobilization, and prices have fallen by 20%, it has not become easier to buy an apartment in such conditions. In fairness, it must be said that people are not in a hurry to use the “window of opportunity” that has opened. Experts told MK about why this is happening and what will happen to housing prices.

Credit institutions have tightened requirements for all categories of borrowers, the terms for issuing mortgages have increased, and the conditions for it have become worse. As a result, apartment buyers themselves began to abandon the idea of ​​using borrowed funds. In the first days after the announcement of the mobilization, Russia left, according to preliminary data, 700 thousand people. How many of them plan to return is still unknown. However, data on real estate market prices falling by 20% suggests that many of those who left clearly do not intend to return.

Such a story could be used by those who want to live and work in Russia, but that was not the case. Banks began to refuse mortgages to men of military age “without explanation.” After the statements of the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina about tightening the requirements for mortgages on new buildings with an initial payment of less than 10% in order to reduce the risk for the banking sector, market participants began to expect a decrease in the popularity of mortgages.

In addition, the Bank of Russia clearly indicated that near-zero mortgage rates from developers may indicate an overpriced real estate, which is misleading borrowers, and the Central Bank will take measures in this regard, which was also stated by the head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina .

“When assessing risks, banks also take into account the requirements of the Central Bank,” recalls Svetlana Zubkova, Associate Professor of the Department of Banking and Monetary Regulation of the Financial University. “Therefore, it is quite natural that in the context of a budget deficit, the need for active restructuring of the economy, and other worsening factors, the growth of unsecured debt should not be allowed.” This was the trigger for the change in the attitude of the regulator and commercial banks to the assessment of loans without a down payment, the scientist claims.

However, experts argue that even such actions of the regulator today only have a secondary effect on the market. The main thing is something else. “At the moment, no new clients turn to us for mortgage consultations at all,” says the owner of a construction company, Maxim Lazovsky. — We only guide those who have already entered into the transaction, have preliminary approval from the bank or are in the process of collecting documents.

“Tightening the screws” will reduce demand, but not as much as the political situation and uncertainty lower it. We are talking about the complex fear of the population before big expenses at a time when it is not known what will happen tomorrow.” Today, banks may ask (not require) a certificate from the military registration and enlistment office or another way to confirm a “delay” or reservation. Well, obsessively offer insurance to reduce their risks and loan interest rates, respectively.

It is pointless to assess the situation – citizens are ruled by emotions. The Russians in such conditions should wait for a pause and make a reasonable decision. “Prices for apartments will decrease in the short term,” Lazovsky is sure. 15-20% at least. Already now in the secondary segment there are options for “urgent sale” with a discount of up to 30%. They are put up by those who are going to leave the country and do it very quickly.” Buyers with cash can be advised to look for such options, and mortgage holders can find a suitable preferential program for themselves or take a break until the situation stabilizes for at least 2-3 months, the expert emphasized.

“If you decide to buy secondary real estate, it is better to ask for a discount and explain the situation in the event of an increase in the mortgage rate,” Victor Zubik, the founder of the Smarent management company, continues the conversation, “Because the seller needs to explain the situation. especially if the apartment suits you and you buy it for personal living. The best strategy now is to negotiate with the seller on the price and conditions, or to buy on the primary market: the price there will be more expensive, but the mortgage rate will be much lower and the payback will occur in 2-3 years. In addition, the developer will help to get a mortgage from a bank, since if the developer is accredited, the chances of obtaining a loan for housing are higher, the expert noted.