Experts evaluated campaigns for the election of deputies of legislative assemblies

At the final stage of the election campaign, the situation in the regions where elections to legislative assemblies are held may change under the influence of various factors. This is stated in the report of the Agency for Political and Economic Communications (APEC) “Elections to legislative assemblies – 2023: basic trends, pre-election clusters, factors of loyal and protest voting”, which was reviewed by Vedomosti.

The campaign can be affected, for example, by natural disasters or unexpected moves in the regional government. But at the same time, the actions of the federal center, the effective campaigns of United Russia and the limited activity of the opposition may lead to the strengthening of United Russia compared to past election cycles, the APEC report says.

The experts divided the regions where legislative assembly elections are held into four groups: regions with a high protest potential (there were precedents for leadership in past campaigns by opposition parties and candidates), regions with an average protest potential (where the opposition can get high results), paternalistic regions ( dominated by United Russia candidates) and electorally controlled regions with separate zones of protest voting (regions with a high level of support for United Russia and the “loyal pool” candidates).

The regions with a high protest potential in elections to legislative assemblies in the APEC included six subjects – Yakutia, Khakassia, the Nenets Autonomous District, Ulyanovsk Region (the Communist Party of the Russian Federation is strong everywhere, it scored high results at different levels of elections in previous years), Transbaikal Territory (in elections to legislative assemblies in In 2018, the LDPR only slightly surpassed the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, each of the parties scored almost 25%), the Yaroslavl Region (strong players of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and A Just Russia – For Truth).

There are seven regions with an average protest potential: Buryatia, Kalmykia (the Communist Party of the Russian Federation is strong in both regions, New People had noticeable results), the Arkhangelsk region (all parties had noticeable results), Vladimir, Smolensk, Irkutsk and Ivanovo regions (there are strong positions in all CPRF). One region is classified as electorally controlled with separate protest zones – this is the Rostov region, where the Communist Party of the Russian Federation is strong on the protest flank, but United Russia has 2.5 times higher results in the 2021 State Duma elections in the region.

The paternalistic regions include the Kemerovo region and Bashkiria, where United Russia traditionally won the majority of votes. Also, this group included new regions – the DPR, LPR, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. Here, experts say, protest moods are unlikely to be observed and United Russia will have an advantage. But several parties of the parliamentary opposition will be able to get representation. The Communist Party, for example, has better chances in the LPR and Zaporozhye.

In paternalistic regions and regions with high electoral controllability, support for United Russia was at a very high level during previous election campaigns, says APEC Director General Dmitry Orlov: “However, here, in some cases, an increase in its results is possible compared to the 2021 parliamentary elections. “. In subjects with an average protest potential, the party’s position may strengthen in Buryatia, Irkutsk, and possibly Arkhangelsk and Smolensk regions, the expert believes. “In subjects with a high protest potential, the position of United Russia, compared to the last elections to the regional parliament, may be somewhat strengthened, for example, in Khakassia, where work can become an additional mobilizing factor for a loyal electorate. [депутата Госдумы, кандидата на пост главы Хакасии] Sergei Sokol with a local and protest agenda (social, environmental, infrastructural),” says Orlov.

In addition, in APEC, the pre-election regions were divided into three pre-election clusters by location, assessing which agenda could be the main one. In the “northern” cluster (this includes nine northern, Siberian and Far Eastern regions) attention will be paid to the problems of housing and communal services and the fight against natural disasters. In the “non-chernozem” (includes five new and four border regions), the topic of supporting small towns and demography will be important. These two clusters have historically been zones of active competition between the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Liberal Democratic Party, and, unlike the elections to the State Duma in 2021, in the current campaign, the redistribution of the electorate is possible in favor of the Liberal Democratic Party, APEC believes.

Support among protest voters in the northern, Siberian and non-black earth regions will not necessarily shift from the Communist Party to other opposition players, including the LDPR, but competition between parties in these regions will be more active, Orlov said. “Competitors of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation can get additional chances to strengthen support among wavering protest voters if such players traditionally have strong base positions in a particular region (like the Liberal Democratic Party in a number of northern territories or A Just Russia in the Yaroslavl region), while such opposition parties will be able to effectively campaign to draw attention to their social initiatives,” he said. In addition, many topics that strengthened the electoral mobilization of the Communist Party during the Duma campaign – 2021, such as criticism by representatives of the party of coronavirus restrictions, have lost their relevance today, he notes: “However, the redistribution of part of the votes of the protest electorate in favor of the Liberal Democratic Party, A Just Russia, and in “New people” is possible, but not guaranteed.”

And in the third, “border” cluster (four regions of the Central Non-Black Earth Region), the main problems will be security, as well as, possibly, the development of social infrastructure and the agro-industrial complex. Such a distribution will strengthen the influence of federal figures who oversee the construction complex, the Arctic and Far Eastern agenda, the Ministry of Agriculture and United Russia, which oversees the implementation of national projects.

A Just Russia – For Truth has favorable starting positions in campaigns in the Yaroslavl region and Yakutia. The New People will be influenced by two trends – on the one hand, the elections are taking place in regions where the party received results significantly higher than the federal one (like Yakutia, Buryatia, Kalmykia), but, on the other hand, the party put forward noticeably fewer candidates than other parties parliamentary opposition. For example, New People have about 2,500 candidates nominated for all levels of elections this year, while A Just Russia has about 6,700 candidates, and other parties have more.

The division of regions by protest potential by colleagues from APEC is logical and justified, however, the situation has changed a lot compared to 2018, political consultant Maria Sergeeva believes. “The previous elections to the legislature were held against the backdrop of the pension reform, so the protest mood and the popularity of the Communist Party were logical. Now the situation is different – the second year there is a special operation, the effect of “unity around the flag”, the new popularity of the president and the ruling party,” she notes. Therefore, in all regions, United Russia will take the majority of seats in regional parliaments, Sergeeva believes. At the same time, it is extremely important for the authorities to maintain a positive information background until March 2024, so there will be a minimum of scandals in the 2023 elections, any disputes with the opposition will be resolved in a constructive dialogue, Sergeeva adds.