Experts estimated additional payments to the economy due to the rate increase

Additional expenses of business and the state for servicing debt (loans and bonds) will average 100–150 billion rubles. per month against the backdrop of an increase in the key rate to 12%, analysts polled by Vedomosti estimated. Most of it – from 80 billion to 100 billion – will be in corporate loans with a floating rate. For the state, the interest rate risk was realized on government bonds with a floating coupon (OFZ-PK, or floaters, the coupon income for which is tied to the RUONIA rate), in addition, the cost of subsidizing the rate under preferential loan programs (mortgage, SME loans, etc.) will also increase. ).

An increase in the key rate by 3.5% – from 8.5% to 12% – will increase the costs of the state and non-financial companies by about 100 billion rubles. per month, Dmitry Kulikov, director of the ACRA sovereign ratings group, estimated. First of all, due to the growth of payments on loans with floating rates, as well as due to the refinancing of the debt that has come to maturity, he explained. If compared with the key level before the first increase in a long time in July (then the Central Bank raised the rate from 7.5 to 8.5%), spending would have been about 35 billion more. According to Kulikov, more than 80% of the increase in interest expenses falls on the debt of companies, the rest – on the state. The figure of 100 billion is not constant from month to month and will rather grow over time, as more and more of the short-term debt is refinanced at new long rates, the expert explains. “The transfer of short rates to long ones is incomplete, but still exists,” the expert emphasized.