Experts disagree on the level of competition in the gubernatorial elections in Khakassia

The Expert Institute for Social Research (EISI) held a round table on Thursday devoted to the autumn gubernatorial elections. Its participants do not expect problems with the election of candidates from the authorities, and of the current governors, in their opinion, only communist Valentin Konovalov can lose his post. True, according to Kommersant’s sources, the position of his main competitor, United Russia member Sergei Sokol, is not so strong and the winner can be determined only in the second round of elections. At the same time, Konstantin Kostin, head of the Civil Society Development Fund, who did not participate in the round table, believes that second rounds are possible in some other regions.

The tone for all further discussion at the round table was set by the speech of INSOMAR Political Analysis Director Viktor Poturemsky. He named three leaders and three outsiders in electoral ratings among the 21 governors who will face direct elections in September (the expert did not provide the exact output of the poll, on the basis of which these conclusions were made). “In the first place is the governor of the Samara region Dmitry Azarov – 87%, the head of the Pskov region Mikhail Vedernikov – 85.8% and the governor of the Nizhny Novgorod region Gleb Nikitin – 85.7%. The governor of the Voronezh region Alexander Gusev closes the line – 59.5% and the governor of the Altai Territory Viktor Tomenko – 58%. The head of the Republic of Khakassia, Valentin Konovalov, has 35%,” Mr. Poturemsky reported and dwelled separately on the reasons for the low rating of the head of Khakassia. According to the sociologist, the voters of the republic blame their head for inconsistent and ineffective personnel policy, lack of interaction with the federal center and corporations operating in the region, an abundance of PR, and curtailment of social programs.

Other experts have also spoken of Valentin Konovalov’s failures and compared him to another communist, Oryol governor Andrei Klychkov, who is also seeking re-election this year.

“Andrey Klychkov showed himself quite well: the growth of spending on supporting industry, attracting billions of investments, growth in engineering, in agriculture,” political scientist Pavel Danilin listed. He advised Mr. Konovalov to “kneel before the people of Khakassia” and resign.

Note that the stories of the governors Klychkov and Konovalov are not so similar, despite the membership of both in the Communist Party. The first was a candidate agreed with the federal authorities in the 2018 elections, and United Russia (ER) did not put up an opponent against him. But Valentin Konovalov in the same 2018 won the head of Khakassia Viktor Zimin (ER) in the competitive elections, and for the federal authorities, according to Kommersant’s information, the young communist after that did not become “their own”. His main opponent in the 2023 elections will be State Duma deputy from United Russia Sergei Sokol, who recently returned from a special military operation. In the address of the latter at the round table on July 6, mostly complementary assessments were heard.

For example, EISI Managing Director Firdus Aliyev focused on the fact that during the conference on the nomination of Mr. Sokol to the governors, the composition of Viktor Tsoi “We are waiting for changes” was played, and assured that the voters of Khakassia were really waiting for these changes.

Nevertheless, three well-informed Kommersant sources close to the presidential administration note that so far there is no need to talk about the leadership of Sergei Sokol in the Khakass campaign (their ratings are at least comparable with Valentin Konovalov) and the Kremlin understands that now the most realistic scenario of these elections – the second round. “Sergey Sokol has not yet caught the emotions,” one of Kommersant’s interlocutors explains.

It should be noted that in May, the Civil Society Development Foundation, in its report on the upcoming gubernatorial elections, indicated that the campaign in Khakassia was “doomed to be competitive.” “As for Khakassia, I can say that at the moment there is a high probability that the second round will take place there, in which the incumbent governor and the United Russia candidate will enter. Its result will depend on the quality of the work of the candidates in the active phase of the campaign,” Konstantin Kostin, head of the fund, confirmed to Kommersant that these conclusions were unchanged. The authors of the May report also admitted the possibility of a second round in the Altai and Primorsky Territories, the Ivanovo and Orel Regions and Yakutia, and they characterized the campaign in the Krasnoyarsk Territory as “problematic.” Regarding the Altai Territory, Mr. Kostin still believes that the candidate from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, Maria Prusakova, if registered, will greatly complicate the life of the head of the region, Viktor Tomenko (ER), and in the Krasnoyarsk Territory, participation in the elections of Alexander Gliskov (LDPR) will require additional efforts from the headquarters of the acting governor Mikhail Kotyukov (ER). As for Yakutia, the Ivanovo and Oryol regions, according to the expert, the situation there now is better for the acting leaders than it was two months ago. “The delayed choice factor works for candidates from the authorities. Patriotically inclined voters are now inclined not to express their claims to the authorities. But everything will depend on the final line of candidates,” Konstantin Kostin concludes. But in Primorye, in his opinion, there are all signs of reformatting the campaign into a “referendum” campaign (governor Oleg Kozhemyako has no notable opponents).

Meanwhile, EISI experts consider the position of all governors to be very good, except for Valentin Konovalov.

In particular, the participants of the round table noted the successful positioning of the head of the Ivanovo region Stanislav Voskresensky on the topic of representing small towns and the good work of Mikhail Kotyukov in social networks. And in the Altai Territory, Viktor Tomenko has no real opponents, Firdus Aliyev is sure: “The fact that the current governor has a strong competitor in the form of Prusakova is speculation and reasoning in the virtual space. Candidate Prusakova does not have the support of the population, there is the support of a number of elite groups, and even then they are on the peripheral agenda.”

Andrey Vinokurov