Experts called the ruble exchange rate necessary for the budget until the end of the year

The weakening ruble will allow the Ministry of Finance to fulfill the plan for treasury revenues even against the backdrop of falling export earnings, analysts interviewed by Vedomosti believe. According to them, in order to fulfill the budget within the approved parameters, the exchange rate in the next six months should remain at a level of at least 90 rubles/$. In the spring, the authorities assumed that oil and gas revenues (OGD) against the backdrop of lower energy prices and supply volumes could significantly deviate from the plan approved in the budget law. However, on July 12, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that at least the base level of 8 trillion rubles. – AGI at the end of 2023 was achieved. “This year we will generally reach our planned targets.” “The dollar has risen in price, while oil prices have fallen. If we look at the volume of oil and gas revenues, we are now reaching the basic level of oil and gas revenues accounted for in the budget,” the minister said. The base level is the value of oil and gas revenues, which directly affects the maximum allowable amount of expenses. For this year and for 2024-2025 it is set at 8 trillion rubles. The total volume of basic oil and gas revenues, which was initially forecasted in 2023, was approved in the amount of 8.9 trillion rubles.

Even with the exchange rate of 90 rubles/$, the Ministry of Finance continues to lack oil and gas revenues, said Andrey Maslov, an analyst at FG Finam. If the situation with exports does not change, then the required exchange rate may reach 100 rubles/$, he believes. However, this does not mean that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Finance will artificially lower the ruble, the analyst emphasizes.