Experts called Kyiv’s goals in provocation against Pridnestrovie
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On the night of February 24, the Russian Defense Ministry warned that it was closely monitoring the situation in Transnistria. According to him, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing a staging of the invasion of Russian troops from the territory of Transnistria. All its participants are planned to be dressed in the form of Russian military personnel. Next, the Moldovan authorities called on the inhabitants of Pridnestrovie to calm down, saying that Chisinau knew nothing about the provocation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
What is actually happening there and what can we expect in the near future? A military expert captain of the 1st rank in reserve shared his thoughts on the situation with MK Vladimir Gundarov.
To begin with, I would like to note that the calls of official Chisinau for calm still do not inspire much confidence. They say that the public should believe the information of official, trustworthy sources, meaning by such sources themselves, and not trustworthy – the Russian Ministry of Defense. The Chisinau authorities, as they say, rely on foreign partners with whom they cooperate and those, in case of danger, immediately inform them of everything.
It is difficult to say who today is capable of taking such arguments seriously, especially since in the history of Moldova such “cooperation” with “foreign partners” has never ended in anything good. In the early 90s, Moldovans were also told that the situation was under the complete control of Chisinau, after which shooting began in Dubossary, which then turned into a full-fledged war.
Today there is no less reason for concern. The same Western “partners”, on whose help Chisinau is so counting, are now actively putting pressure on the President of Moldova, Maia Sandu, regarding the speedy resolution of the Transnistrian issue, while pretending that they do not notice the active maneuvers of Ukrainian armored vehicles near the borders with Transnistria.
At the same time, the Moldovan Foreign Ministry states that Chisinau will not sit down at the negotiating table with representatives of Pridnestrovie, and prefers to use only the language of force in the dialogue with Tiraspol. This is dangerous, since Kyiv can use this situation in its own interests.
The greatest concern in this regard is caused by ammunition depots located since Soviet times in the village of Kolbasna in the Rybnitsa region of Transnistria. The ammunition there is certainly old. In what exact state they are, now few people really imagine. However, a number of experts argue that even if part of the arsenals goes to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they will ensure themselves the opportunity to fight for at least another year without resorting to the help of the West. For the sake of such a prospect, Kyiv is capable of any provocation.
Versions of how Russia will have to help Pridnestrovie in this case are now just teeming with Internet sites.
Here, for example, is what expert Yuri Baranchuk writes in his Telegram channel: “The Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic occupies a narrow strip of land between Moldova and Ukraine. At its widest point, its width is no more than 30 km, at its narrowest – up to 3 km, and on average – 10-12 km. At the same time, in the west it has a border with Moldova with a length of 411 km, and in the east with Ukraine – 405 km. The Dniester River constitutes a natural border along most of the border line with Moldova.”
In this regard, he concludes that “the lack of strategic depth makes the defense of Transnistria almost impossible. It is absolutely easy to cut it into several sections with a few blows from Ukrainian territory, and then clean it up separately.”
According to Baranchuk, “the warehouses are defended by a military contingent of about 3-4 thousand, maximum 5-7 thousand people. It includes a limited group of Russian troops, Russian peacekeepers, the Transnistrian police and other security forces. The chances of holding the armories and the entire territory of Transnistria in the event of a full-scale invasion from Ukraine are extremely small. The classic version with complete isolation of the combat area. Russia will not be able to help with ground forces. The only option is missile strikes. However, given the isolation of the combat area, their effectiveness is doubtful.
The expert believes that in order to help Pridnestrovie in the event of an attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russian military group will need to break through a ground corridor. This, he believes, is only possible with “tactical nuclear weapons. At the same time, either through the territory of Ukraine, or through the territory of Romania – a member of NATO. At the same time, Baranchuk recalls that “on the territory of Romania there is a US missile defense base in Deveselu. And also deployed one brigade of the 101st Airborne Division of the US Army. In short, the situation is worse than ever.”
On his Telegram channel, a well-known military analyst, editor of the Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine, Alexei Leonkov, emphasizes that the Russian group in Transnistria does not have a strike orientation.
As part of the Operational Group of Russian Forces in the Transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova, there are two separate motorized rifle peacekeeping battalions and a security and maintenance battalion. The total number of the Operational Groups is no more than 1,700 military personnel. At the same time, the 82nd and 113th motorized rifle battalions alternately carried out a peacekeeping mission on the Dniester, replacing each other a year later. The rotation of peacekeepers was previously carried out through the territory of Ukraine, as well as the Chisinau airport.
In our time, this is not possible. Almost every second Pridnestrovian is a citizen of Russia. In total, about 200 thousand people live there.
However, Aleksey Leonkov believes that “the inhabitants of Transnistria need to be assured, do not hesitate, Russia will immediately begin hostilities for Transnistria in the event of an aggravation of the situation.”
MK and Vladimir Gundarov expressed their opinion:
– I think, – says the expert, – that Kiev is preparing a provocation to divert our forces from the front. Although the meaning of their actions is not fully justified. If we could transfer our military units to Transnistria, then it would be logical. But we cannot do this, we have no means of communication with Pridnestrovie. We can solve this problem only by political or economic means. In any case, through negotiations.
– With whom and about what can you negotiate now?
– Pridnestrovie is a source of electricity for the whole of Moldova. To do this, we supply Pridnestrovie with gas. Virtually free. Thus, Moldova, as it were, uses our gas in order to receive electricity. If we turn off the gas, then they will turn off the electricity. And Chisinau understands this very well.
– Let us suppose. This is the economic path. You said there is also a political one.
– Yes, from a political point of view, the situation in Moldova is now very unstable. Many Moldovan and the same Ukrainian, but relatively pro-Russian oligarchs have economic interests that do not coincide with the interests of the Moldovan authorities. Of course, they will try to bring the people of Moldova to the streets – and they are already overexcited there now – they will organize demonstrations of protest, they can arrange anything they want there, up to a coup. The authorities in Chisinau are seriously afraid of this.
I don’t see other, more realistic options for the development of the situation yet, because we have a connection with Pridnestrovie only through Moldova, through Chisinau. That is, we can first fly there by plane, and then we get to Pridnestrovie.
– Is the Kiev authorities able to take advantage of this somehow? Are there forces that the Armed Forces of Ukraine could really throw there?
– Most likely no. Still, there are a lot of weapons in Pridnestrovie, and all the inhabitants there have already gone through a civil war. And in this war they defended their territory. Kyiv will need large forces to attack Transnistria.
– And if the authorities of Moldova itself help them?
– Neither Moldova nor Ukraine currently has such forces. It makes no sense to speak seriously about the Moldovan army, and the Ukrainian units are now busy in the east. Therefore, I believe that all these conversations are most likely a provocation, which is not supported by real opportunities. She pursues some other goals. Perhaps it is designed to, for example, get us to resume gas supplies to Moldova, or something like that. That is, as a result of such a provocation, get some economic preferences.
There are no real forces to implement such a provocation yet. That limited group of several thousand Russian troops, peacekeepers, Transnistrian security forces, which is now in Transnistria, is able to effectively resist the military provocation of Ukraine. Provided, of course, that this provocation is not supported by the grouping of NATO troops. But then it will be a completely different situation and a different level of conflict.
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