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The liquid part of the National Welfare Fund (NWF) has been declining at a high rate in the last two years and, if the macroeconomic situation worsens – both in the world and in Russia – it may approach exhaustion in the next 2-3 years, experts interviewed by Vedomosti estimated. But this is unlikely to lead to serious problems – moreover, the National Welfare Fund is gradually losing its role as a moneybox where excess income is accumulated, analysts believe.

The projected amount of liquid funds of 3.5% of GDP is the budget price of one fairly large crisis with a drop in external demand and, accordingly, the value of exports, notes Dmitry Kulikov, director of the group of sovereign and regional ratings at ACRA. In the absence of such a crisis and provided that the current concept of the fiscal rule holds, the liquid part of the National Welfare Fund is unlikely to fall fundamentally over the horizon of several years, he believes. Moreover, “The National Welfare Fund has ceased to be a piggy bank – rather, it is a vat with liquid resources, into which excess oil and gas revenues are constantly poured and from where funds are poured for the same infrastructure projects,” says Anton Tabakh, chief economist of the Expert RA rating agency.