Experts assessed the likelihood of Central Asian countries joining the anti-Russian sanctions

Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Mikhail Galuzin, during his speech at the Central Asian conference of the Valdai Club, announced the likelihood of a number of Central Asian countries joining the anti-Russian sanctions. He warned that the consequences of such a move “could turn out to be more severe damage than the cost of the notorious secondary sanctions.”

“Despite the coincidence of positions regarding the unacceptability and illegitimacy of unilateral economic restrictions, a number of Central Asian countries nevertheless do not want to take on the corresponding risks, they make it clear that they are ready to follow Western restrictive measures,” he said.

In the context of the situation with the special operation, the CIS countries are trying to distance themselves from Russia on issues that concern the West, Konstantin Zatulin, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, told Vedomosti. Their “pendulum behavior” is reminiscent of the behavior of third world countries during the confrontation between the US and the USSR in the Cold War, the deputy believes.

The countries of Central Asia are under unprecedented pressure, since the beginning of the special operation, the number of visits by European and American delegations has exceeded all expected volumes, the Director General of the Information and Analytical Center for the Study of the Post-Soviet Space at Moscow State University named after Vedomosti told Vedomosti. Lomonosov Daria Chizhova.

In her opinion, the countries of Central Asia have taken a neutral position – preventing the circumvention of sanctions through their territory, but also not allowing the blockade of Russia.

“In fact, we see that trade with the Central Asian countries has grown, new infrastructure and logistics projects have received a second life, designed to optimize routes,” Chizhova said.

Galuzin’s statement should be taken as a warning, says Stanislav Pritchin, senior researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at IMEMO RAS.

He noted that the temporary freeze of some projects (for example, in the gas sector and nuclear energy) does not mean a stop to cooperation with Russia. In his opinion, it is not worth waiting for the open accession of the CIS countries to anti-Russian sanctions.

“Officially, the CIS countries will not join the sanctions, because for them Russia is the number one or number two trading partner (after China). <…> Joining the sanctions will lead to a serious deterioration in the socio-economic situation,” the expert noted.

Zatulin believes that Galuzin’s statement is symptomatic, as facts accumulate over time. As an example, he mentioned the introduction by Kazakhstan of a supply monitoring system to prevent circumvention of sanctions.

At the end of March, Kazakhstan announced the launch of a system for the mandatory issuance of shipping invoices for goods in electronic form and tracking the movement of goods in the EAEU space (Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan) using electronic seals (EDS).