Experts assessed the anti-crisis potential of the regions

On Tuesday, at a round table dedicated to the presentation of a report on the anti-crisis strategies of Russian governors (see “Kommersant” of December 27), the communication agency “Minchenko Consulting” presented the concept of the “anti-crisis potential” index of the subjects of the federation, which ranks them based on the “margin of safety”. According to the head of the agency Yevgeny Minchenko, this is a “test product”, which is based on other Minchenko Consulting ratings, such as, for example, “State Council 2.0″, in which experts assess the political stability of governors and the likelihood of their resignation, as well as the model ” Politburo 2.0, which analyzes the balance of power in Vladimir Putin’s inner circle.

According to the results of the trial rating, Moscow and Tatarstan demonstrate the greatest potential. Their leaders Sergei Sobyanin and Rustam Minnikhanov, in particular, received 10 points each for proximity to Politburo 2.0 and 5 points each for having major infrastructure projects. The final index of their “anti-crisis potential” was 10 units. Following are the Tula (9.2), Kaliningrad (8.7) and Moscow (8.6) regions, St. Petersburg (8.4), Rostov (8.3) and Leningrad (7.4) regions, Krasnoyarsk Territory (7) and Kuzbass (6.9).

Most regions received an index from Minchenko Consulting in the range from 3 to 6, the median value was 4.4. At the same time, six subjects at once had an index below 2 units – these are the Smolensk Region, the Jewish Autonomous Region, the Altai Territory, Khakassia, Ingushetia and Kalmykia.

As analyst Yulian Balandin, who presented the index, noted, in aggregate, 30% of the country’s population, 28.5% of voters and 42.8% of the total gross domestic product fall into the top ten of the rating. These are the subjects most resistant to crisis shocks, the regional backbone that accumulates human, electoral and economic resources. They are followed by “regions of patronage”, where “the degree of patronage of the governor exceeds the economic potential”, which makes it possible to maintain high resistance to shocks, “economic middle peasants” (not the highest patronage, but good economy); “lagging behind” (low patronage, high conflict) and “poorly resourced” (potentially unable to cope with the crisis). Finally, the expert separately singled out the regions of the North Caucasus as “difficult to assess their situation and anti-crisis capabilities.” It should be noted that mainly the Caucasian republics received an index below 4 units, with the exception of Chechnya, which scored more than 5 units.

Andrew Ashes