Experts argued about the consequences of the explosion in the port of Turkey: who benefits

On the stock exchanges they will try to cash in on the state of emergency that happened in Derindzhe

An explosion occurred while loading wheat onto a ship in the Turkish port of Deringe on the afternoon of August 7. According to the latest data, at least 13 people were injured, two of whom are in serious condition, but information about people is constantly being updated. But the estimates of economic damage from local authorities are the same: the explosion damaged 13 out of 16 elevators. Whether this event will affect the world grain market, and how in the end all this may affect the Russian economy, MK found out from experts.

The explosion occurred at 2:40 pm local time, which coincides with Moscow time, in western Turkey near the large commercial port of Derince in the Sea of ​​Marmara. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was immediately notified about the incident and, of course, the head of the local Interior Ministry, Ali Yerlikaya, is in the know. According to the preliminary version of the investigation, flour dust became the cause of the emergency. The mayor of the city, Zeki Aygun, called the incident negligence. However, various conspiracy theories of what happened are already being openly discussed on social networks, since the emergency happened at a very “good” time. The explosion occurred just over three weeks after the completion of the grain deal, in which the port of Derince was actively involved. Against this background, the provocation in Derinj can become a convenient pretext for accusing our country, so it is not surprising that telegram channels are skeptical about the grain suspension version.

The experts interviewed by MK differed in their assessments of who would be more affected by the incident and who would be the beneficiary of the tragedy. According to Artem Tuzov, director of the corporate finance department at IVA Partners Investment Company, it can be said in hot pursuit that serious damage has been done to the port’s elevator structure. Taking into account that Turkey is one of the main counterparties of Russia in terms of grain export, it can be assumed that the volume of grain supplies from our country will decrease by 10-15% over the next 3-4 months. All such accidents led to an increase in the cost of grain, so there is no doubt that prices for it will rise. The increase can be the same 10-15%. “Russia supplies grain not only to Turkey: the list of contractors is quite extensive,” Tuzov said. — Therefore, the volumes can be gradually redirected to Egypt and the Emirates. In general, the long-term consequences of the accident are more likely to be negative for Turkey than for the Russian Federation.” Grain prices may increase by 10-15% because the cost of passage of ships through the straits of Turkey has grown significantly over the past two years, it was more profitable to unload in this Black Sea country, the analyst added.

Khadzhimurad Belkharoev, Associate Professor of the International Economic Security Program at the Institute of World Economy and Business of the Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, agrees that the current emergency will first of all affect the economy of Turkey itself, and then on those countries that are importers of grain products from the republic. When establishing export-import deliveries, first of all, logistics routes are worked out, transportation costs significantly increase the cost of the transported cargo, so buyers will have to look for new suppliers until the supply of products is restored in the same volume.

Since 2016, Russia has been the largest grain supplier in the world, while the emergency situation in Turkey will not affect the economy of our country. Grain crops produced by domestic farmers are in demand all over the world; more than 140 countries buy them directly or through intermediaries.

“The main traders of grain products, through controlled media, will try to organize informational stuffing, the expanding scale of the catastrophe, in order to increase the cost of the products they supply to the world commodity market,” Belkharoev is sure. And the price of grain since the beginning of August has already been growing, because dry weather in India and the EU contributes to this. The scientist recalled that Russia and India have imposed restrictions on the export of rice: this volume must be replaced by other food products. Given that India supplies about 40% of rice to the world market, grain prices will increase in the future. The final cost of grain will be adjusted after the harvest of the current year, the expert said.

Read also: The expert told what could have caused the explosion in the Turkish port