Expert Belyaev predicted the collapse of the ruble: “Dollar at 85 rubles”

Will the peak of the national currency continue?

The exchange rate of the ruble against the currencies of Russia’s main trading partners, adjusted for inflation, fell by 14.7% in the first quarter, according to the materials of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. At the same time, the dollar only in March rose in price by 4.2% compared to February. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, at a joint expanded meeting of the boards of his department with the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, said that the reason for such dynamics was a significant decrease in oil and gas revenues in the first quarter and that the situation would change soon, because energy prices in the world began to grow. About what to expect next from the exchange rate in the short term, “MK” said the candidate of economic sciences, financial analyst Mikhail Belyaev.

Why is the ruble depreciating?

– I stand on the position that the exchange rate cannot be made the way anyone who speaks from high tribunes wants at their own discretion, at least for a long time. The rate of one currency to another is determined by the general state of the economy of the state to which this currency belongs – its efficiency, growth rates, development prospects … The strength of one currency in comparison with another is determined, first of all, by these fundamental factors.

— Last year was not easy for Russia, but the ruble strengthened in spring and summer. Why is it different now, although, as the financial authorities say, even the process of adaptation to new conditions has actually been completed?

– Last year, during this period, the domestic economy showed quite good results. The main indicators did not sag, there was a serious foreign trade balance, by the way, in contrast to the United States, where signs of a pre-crisis state were recorded – high inflation and so on. That is why the ruble strengthened against the dollar at that moment. But at the end of last year, our economy paused, the pace of adaptation slowed down, while Europe and the United States managed to overcome their problems and prevent the crisis by regulatory methods. As a result, their currencies began to strengthen against the ruble. In Russia, starting from December, the entire first quarter and already half of April, entrepreneurs take a wait-and-see attitude. Business activity is actually stagnating. Business routinely does its job, but there is no development. All this is reflected in the economy and as a result, the ruble began to weaken, while the American and European economies even began to show small signs of improvement.

— It is hard to imagine that last summer the Russian economy developed more actively than now…

— Last year, the economy was being restructured — and quite effectively. And today, look, the ruble began to decline even against the yuan. This is an even more striking indicator than the value of the domestic currency against the dollar and the euro. The yuan is a state-regulated currency, so if the ruble is getting cheaper here, it is for basic reasons related precisely to the development of the economy. Today in Russia, its development has actually been put on pause by the entrepreneurial corps, which is not doing what it should. Business is either waiting for some kind of old times to return, or for the state to again provide some incredible support. All this leads to stagnation and depreciation of the ruble against major currencies.

– Siluanov looks at the further dynamics of the domestic currency, judging by the latest statements, with confidence in the further stabilization of the situation. He is right?

– If entrepreneurs continue to wait, the ruble will continue to fall. The head of the Ministry of Finance shared his assessment at a time when multidirectional dynamics were observed on the stock exchange. However, if you look globally, then all this is happening within the framework of a progressively declining trend. If the business does not begin to sway, then it will end up with “stabilization” turning into a collapse phase. However, this, I am sure, the government will not allow.

– Purely mathematically, it turns out that if the ruble continues to fall in price at the same pace as in the first quarter, then by the end of the year it may lose up to 60% of its value and the extreme exchange rate of last year at 120 rubles per dollar will become a reality?

— Purely mathematical approaches to economics are not correct. We’re not talking about statistics. The negative trend will not continue indefinitely. Both the president and the prime minister and other responsible persons in power are trying to change the situation and influence the mood of the business community. For the sake of this, constant meetings are held, trips to the regions and conversations with governors, who have a lot of big business concentrated in local government. Therefore, it is difficult to make a forecast today. The domestic economy is now under the scrutiny of the “powerful of this world” and they are unlikely to allow the development of a crisis, so one should not expect a dollar for 100 rubles. Because such a course would be a sign of an onset crisis, or an exchange panic, but today it will not be allowed to happen, and it makes no sense to consider such a scenario. State support measures will not allow a financial crisis to occur in Russia, but as long as they work, the dollar exchange rate may well reach 85 rubles and strengthen at this level in the spring.