Exit polls: what they are and how they will work in the 2024 presidential elections

What are exit polls, who will conduct them in the elections in 2024, what is planned to be found out – in the Kommersant material.

What is an exit poll

Exit poll (from English exit poll) is a survey of citizens at the exit from the polling station after the voting procedure. The main objectives of the survey are to obtain the possibility of operational forecasts of the outcome of the elections. Exit polls are usually conducted by sociological services, the media, parties participating in elections and international observers.

When was it first held?

The first poll of voters directly after voting was conducted in the United States in 1967 during the gubernatorial elections in Kentucky. In 1972, it was held during the nationwide presidential election. The survey methodology was developed and conducted by Warren Mitofsky, director of the CBS Elections and Polling Center. Subsequently, he was one of the founders of the national consortium Voter News Service, which coordinated the conduct of exit polls by leading media outlets. In 1993, Mr. Mitofsky formed Mitofsky International to conduct surveys abroad.

The first exit polls in Russia were conducted during the referendum on April 25, 1993, which sought confidence in President Boris Yeltsin and his policies, and also asked about the need for re-elections of the president and the State Duma. Then three exit polls were conducted: by VTsIOM with the support of the Associated Press; Institute for Comparative Social Research with Warren Mitofsky with funding from CNN and the Foundation for Public Opinion. The closest to the official results were the results of VTsIOM.

What the latest exit polls showed

In the previous presidential elections, on March 18, 2018, exit polls were conducted by VTsIOM, commissioned by EISI. According to the results of VTsIOM, Vladimir Putin, who participated in the elections as a self-nominated candidate, scored 73.9%, the candidate from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Pavel Grudinin – 11.2%, the leader of the LDPR Vladimir Zhirinovsky – 6.7%, Ksenia Sobchak, nominated from the Civil Initiative – 2 .5%, candidate from the Growth Party Boris Titov – 1.1%, Sergei Boburin from the Russian Public Union – 1.0%, chairman of the Communists of Russia party Maxim Suraikin – 0.8% of the vote. The number of spoiled ballots was 1.2%.

Who will conduct the exit poll in 2024

For the 2024 presidential elections, exit polls will be conducted by VTsIOM, the results will be published immediately after 21:00, when the last polling stations in Kaliningrad close. Voters will be asked: which candidate did they vote for? Why did you come to the polls or why did you stay home? How did the three-day voting work, what day did you come? Do voters like the new elements of the election procedure? About motivation: why did they vote for this candidate and not another? Did you vote in person or with the help of DEG?

Also, in the 2024 elections, exit polls on March 15–17 are planned to be conducted by unregistered presidential candidate Boris Nadezhdin with the help of volunteers.

Efim Bryantsev