Ex-Trump adviser: Putin can offer peace and leave Kyiv without allies

Russian President Vladimir Putin, if the Ukrainian offensive does not bring results, can “without warning” offer a ceasefire and start negotiations. The West will support such a proposal, declared Former national security adviser to US President Donald Trump John Bolton in an article for 19fortyfive.

“If Kyiv’s spring offensive does not lead to significant progress on the battlefield, Putin may offer, without warning, a ceasefire for the next two months along existing front lines and begin negotiations immediately,” he writes.

In this case, Moscow could enlist China’s support for this decision, and Beijing itself could act as an intermediary. The political leadership of Germany, France and even the US “will be greatly tempted” to agree to negotiations, Bolton said. The former adviser notes that the level of military and financial assistance to Ukraine from their side has so far remained insufficient, despite their rhetoric.

“Who, for example, is sure that French President Emmanuel Macron will not jump at the chance to be known as a peacemaker?” he argues.

U.S. President Joe Biden could also play the role of peacemaker ahead of the U.S. election, “by talking directly to Putin and calling on both sides to compromise,” Bolton added.

The Russian and Ukrainian sides began negotiations to resolve the conflict immediately after the start of the special operation. The first three face-to-face meetings took place in Belarus in February-March, and the fourth round of the Russian-Ukrainian dialogue was held on March 29 in Istanbul. The process was later frozen as Ukraine withdrew from the negotiations. The Russian authorities have repeatedly accused Kyiv of disrupting this process.

A number of countries have already proposed their plans to resolve the conflict. In particular, in February, the Chinese Foreign Ministry presented a 12-point program, which included, among other things, the cessation of hostilities. Peace initiatives were also offered by Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa. In early August, negotiations were held in Saudi Jeddah, where Ukraine presented its “peace formula”. About 40 states took part in the meeting, but Russia was not at the meeting. The Foreign Ministry stressed that Moscow expects Russia’s partners to “share with us their assessments” on the results of the meeting.