EU grain imports will decrease in the 2023/24 agricultural year
[ad_1]
After a record high last season (39.9 million tons with a five-year average of 24.3 million tons), grain imports to the EU will decrease in the 2023/24 agricultural year, according to a new forecast of the European Commission (EC). The expected volume of imports is not named in the review, but it is indicated that the import of main grain crops in annual comparison may decrease: soft wheat, barley and corn – by 31% (from 9.5 million tons), 26% (from 2 million tons) and 23% (from 26 million tons), respectively.
The decrease in grain imports to the EU is largely due to the restructuring of their export routes from Ukraine: the high volume of agricultural products imported to Europe last season was provided by Ukrainian exports. As follows from Eurostat calculations, in the 2022/23 season, Ukraine accounted for the largest share of total European grain imports – 55% (21.9 million tons). It is expected that this agricultural year, Ukrainian products will stop settling on European markets and will be sent to developing countries in Asia and Africa. Let us remind you that a working group headed by EC Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis is working on various routes for exporting grain from Ukraine (for more details, see Kommersant on August 22).
The EU plans to reduce imports in conditions of a sufficient volume of carry-over grain stocks and stable production. EU grain production is expected to be 268.5 million tonnes in the 2023/24 season, 1% higher than a year earlier but 4.3% below the five-year average, due to adverse weather conditions in spring and summer 2023 year (drought in Eastern Europe and heavy rains in the north of the region).
The EC expects that wheat production will remain at the same level (125.3 million tons), corn production, having recovered from a significant decline, will grow by 15%, to 59.8 million tons (see chart). Thanks to an increase in sown areas by 4.2% compared to last season, rye production will also increase. The reduction in oat and barley production predicted by the European Commission – by 14% and 6% respectively – is explained by drought in the countries producing these types of grains. Adverse weather conditions will also affect the quality of the crop, increasing the share of feed grain.
[ad_2]
Source link
