EU failed to persuade Kosovo to de-escalate with Serbia

An emergency meeting in Brussels under the auspices of the EU, dedicated to the de-escalation of relations between Serbia and partially recognized Kosovo, where President Aleksandar Vucic participated from the Serbian side, and Prime Minister Albin Kurti from the Kosovo side, ended without results. The representative of the European Commission, Peter Stano, announced this on the evening of November 21 on his Twitter.

Earlier in the day, Vučić said that there had been no constructive outcome from the meeting hosted by EU High Representative Josep Borrell. The Serbian President pointed to the behavior of Pristina, which wanted to add to the texts of the treaty “something that is impossible [исполнить]”. The deadline by which the parties need to reach an agreement, according to Borrell, is November 29.

On November 1, the authorities of partially recognized Kosovo allowed to travel within their territory only with local RKS numbers, and not with Serbian ones. Since November 21, Kosovo Serbs have already been fined 150 euros for violating the rule. The transition period, according to Pristina, will last until April 21, 2023, after which the Kosovo police threaten to confiscate cars with Serbian numbers.

In response to the actions of Pristina, on November 5, the leader of the Serbs of Kosovo and Metohija (this is how official Belgrade calls the territory of Kosovo that he does not control), the head of the Serb List party, Goran Rakic, announced the withdrawal of the Serbs from all Kosovo authorities. Rakic ​​resigned, Serbian deputies, judges and members of municipalities left their posts.

All negotiations are taking place in conditions when there is already a valid Brussels agreement of 2013, concluded with the mediation of the EU, but Pristina refuses to fulfill its part of the obligations, says Anastasia Maleshevich, a researcher at the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO. According to her, Kosovo is creating new points of escalation and hopes to get new concessions from Belgrade. At the same time, apparently, the EU cannot or does not want to influence the Kosovo Albanians in terms of their obligations to create a community of Serbian municipalities, the expert notes.

A military clash, according to Malesevic, depends on the ability of the EU to keep the Albanians from a direct attack on the Serb-majority municipalities in northern Kosovo. In general, the expert believes, the EU as a mediator in the Serbian-Kosovo conflict has not justified itself. Perhaps there is a question of negotiations with the participation of the United States and Russia, she says.

As long as the conflict in Ukraine is in the hot phase, the EU will not allow another such hotbed in Europe, says Oleg Bondarenko, a political scientist and founder of the Balkanist project. “So, despite the apparent dead end of the situation, it is likely to be resolved in some form by Western mediators,” he says.

According to the expert, there is a game to raise the stakes, in which it is absolutely unprofitable for Belgrade to go into direct conflict, since it is focused on its economic stability. The tension that continues on the borders of Serbia with Kosovo, unrecognized by it and Russia, can rather be regarded as disguised Western pressure on Belgrade through Pristina, which is solving its own problems, the expert says. The purpose of this pressure may be an attempt to force Vučić to join Western anti-Russian sanctions over Ukraine, which he has been avoiding in every possible way since February, Bondarenko concluded.