Erdogan separated Finland from Sweden when joining NATO

Turkey may take different decisions on the applications for NATO membership of Sweden and Finland, which filed them simultaneously, due to the action in Stockholm with the burning of the Koran and the failure to fulfill all the conditions of Ankara. On January 29, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated this, and a day later, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu repeated this position.

“If necessary, we can send another message regarding [заявки в НАТО] Finland, if it does not repeat the same mistakes (like the Swedish authorities, who committed the action with the burning of the Koran. – Vedomosti). Sweden will be shocked,” Erdogan promised the day before. According to the newspaper Milliyet, he added that Stockholm has not extradited 120 people whom Ankara considers terrorists. We are talking about members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the opposition organization of the Islamic preacher Fethullah Gülen, called the Turkish authorities FETO.

“They are mocking us. They still have not realized what Turkey is today. They believe that before them is Turkey 20-30-40 years ago. This is not so,” the Turkish leader reminded.

Cavusoglu, speaking on the Habertürk TV channel, assured that Ankara has no fundamental objections to NATO expansion at the expense of Finland or Sweden, but they need to take into account its concerns. At the same time, he confirmed that Turkey can consider the applications of neighbors separately.

In turn, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö said on January 30 in an interview with the Helsingin Sanomat newspaper that his country immediately contacted the Turkish authorities after Erdogan’s hint. It is known that preliminary discussions between Niinistö representatives and Erdogan’s adviser and negotiations at the Foreign Ministry level took place the day before. According to the Finnish leader, the Turkish leader’s comments “were very vague and conditional,” and Turkey’s position on this issue has changed several times.

A new round of tension in relations between Sweden and Turkey was caused by several radical actions. On January 21, far-right Danish politician Rasmus Paludan, who heads the anti-Islamic Stram Kurs (“Hard Course”) party, burned a Koran outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm. The action was agreed with the mayor’s office, and Paludan paid the fee due for such a performance. He held a similar action on January 27 already in Copenhagen.

After the first action, Erdogan said that Stockholm could not wait for Ankara’s support in joining NATO, calling the burning of the Koran an ugly act that offends “everyone who respects the fundamental rights and freedoms of people, especially Muslims.” On January 24, Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto did not rule out that his country could continue the process of joining NATO without Sweden, but then said that the Finnish position on joining together with a neighbor had not changed. His Swedish colleague Tobias Billström admitted that “negotiations stalled” because of Paludan’s shares.

Sweden and Finland applied for NATO membership simultaneously on May 18, 2022. So far, only two countries of the NATO bloc – Hungary and Turkey – have not ratified the protocols on the accession of the two Nordic countries to the alliance.

In Helsinki, earlier they talked about the desirability of simultaneously joining NATO with Sweden, but this does not mean that the Finnish authorities have taken on the corresponding tough obligations, explains Andrey Kortunov, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council. In theory, some desynchronization between Sweden and Finland is possible, but in reality, both countries have now somewhat slowed down their efforts to join NATO. The reason for this is the imminent general elections in Turkey, expected in May. According to Kortunov, now Helsinki and Stockholm are waiting, and according to the results of the elections they will return to discussing their membership in the alliance.

At the end of spring, the expert continues, coordinated efforts will be made to put pressure on Ankara, and the candidate countries have hopes that at the next NATO summit in June a decision will be made on the formal entry of Sweden and Finland into the alliance.