“Erdogan does not have such an administrative resource to correct the election results”

The results of the first round of the presidential elections in Turkey are not unexpected, it was initially clear that they would be full of drama, since the outcome was not predictable, Dmitry Novikov, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, told Vedomosti. Uncertainty remains in the second round, he believes.

According to Novikov, the socio-economic situation in the country has affected the authority of the incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In addition, the deputy says, the internal political life in the country is tense, and Erdogan does not have such an administrative resource to correct the result of the vote.

In relation to Russia, Erdogan has the most constructive position, and his opponent, the leader of the Republican People’s Party, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, is trying to play on pro-Western sentiments, the deputy notes.

On May 11, Kılıçdaroğlu accused Russia of interfering in the electoral process. “If you want to continue our friendship after May 15, keep your hands off the Turkish state,” he tweeted. Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov called these accusations unacceptable.

The results of the second round are not as important as the results of the parallel parliamentary elections, Andrei Klimov, deputy chairman of the Federation Council committee on international affairs, told Vedomosti. The majority was retained by Erdogan’s party, which means that it will not work to change the political system in the country, the senator believes.

A system has been built in Turkey’s relations with Russia, and what will happen if Erdogan loses is not entirely clear, Klimov notes. The West, in his opinion, will do everything to make the appearance of a new president affect the relations between the two countries in a negative way.

Erdogan could not win in the first round of elections for many reasons, in particular, the largest earthquake in Turkey in 80 years, as well as the growing opposition among voters from large cities, contributed to this, Victor Nadein-Raevsky, a senior researcher at the IMEO RAS, told Vedomosti.

“Opposition forces mainly rely on the population of large cities, since Islamization is not as strong there as in Turkish small towns and villages,” he said.

The expert added that Kılıçdaroğlu enjoys the support of Western countries that have a “crystal dream” to rid Turkey of Erdogan.

At the same time, opposition representatives officially declare that in case of victory they will make every effort to maintain stable relations with Russia. Nadein-Raevsky notes that the likelihood of fulfilling these promises is not very high due to the orientation of the Republican People’s Party, which is headed by Kılıçdaroglu, towards Europe. There is a possibility that if Erdogan loses, Turkey, for example, will join the sanctions against Russia, he said.

In Turkey, there is a significant percentage of voters who are dissatisfied with the socio-economic situation in the country, Amur Gadzhiev, a researcher in the Turkish sector at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Vedomosti. In addition, he adds, “overt interference” by Western forces in the electoral process led to the fact that Erdogan could not win in the first round.

Hajiyev believes that Erdogan has good chances to win in the second round. “The Turkish voter is quite politicized and knows how to assess the situation. Most likely, many voters will understand that if the parliament forms the government, then the election of Kılıçdaroglu can cause an unhealthy political situation in the country: many issues will be delayed, blocked,” he said.

Kılıçdaroğlu, in the event of his victory, will most likely try to correct Russian-Turkish relations to please the West, the expert believes.

On May 14, presidential and parliamentary elections were held in Turkey. Erdogan won 49.35% in the first round of presidential elections. His main rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu received 45%. To win in the first round, one of the candidates had to get more than 50% of the votes.