Enemy by calculation – Kommersant

On May 4, Russian President Vladimir Putin met in the Kremlin with the Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation Maxim Reshetnikov and listened to a report on the basis of which he sincerely sympathized with the minister with the European and American colleagues in their economic plight, to which they brought themselves by refusing to cooperate with Russia .

It seems that Maxim Reshetnikov meets with Vladimir Putin almost every day. Almost any meeting objectively requires the presence of the Minister of Economic Development and his explanations, which may be needed at any second for any reason.

Nevertheless, a personal meeting was also needed. It even looked strange. But at some point the situation began to clear up.

Maxim Reshetnikov made no secret of his satisfaction with the state of the Russian economy.

— In recent years, our economy has demonstrated resistance to external shocks and the ability to develop often regardless of external circumstances. This was also the case in COVID, because in 2020 we fell less than many other countries and recovered faster. We presented this information on the slides,” he said.

At this meeting, slides, that is, photographs and graphs in presentation albums, which the president’s interlocutors prepare on a mandatory basis on the recommendation of the Russian president’s protocol department, were destined for a special role. In a way, it’s decisive.

And COVID is a bright page in the biography of not only Maxim Reshetnikov (his appointment as minister coincided with the beginning of the epidemic), but also Vladimir Putin himself.

And the memories of how we stood together to death then will always be fresh.

“Moreover, many countries overcame COVID with very large borrowings, which led to acceleration of inflation, on the one hand, and on the other hand …” the minister began to explain.

“They prefer not to talk about it now,” the President interrupted him. “I watch Western analytics, sometimes I watch European and American news programs (but this was news.” A.K.) – this is completely hushed up, it’s just that no one actually talks about it … – he paused, choosing his words. – At an expert level.

It is obvious that the readiness with which the president interrupted the minister indicated that he seemed to want to speak on this topic first of all. He just needed to be given the opportunity. And Maxim Reshetnikov, of course, did.

Moreover, he did a good job of supporting such a difficult conversation, especially for Western experts:

— And inevitably you will have to pay for it, because the high level of debt in the face of rising rates, because it is also impossible not to react to inflation, of course! Clearly, these are challenges for them,” he nodded sympathetically, “but, of course, one way or another, this also affects us.

The main thing is that we are, thank God, not them, we should not forget about this:

“At the same time, we see that we are in a completely different situation: we have a much lower level of public debt, we have significantly lower inflation! Of the developed countries, we have, in general, annual inflation in March at one of the lowest levels – 3.5%, and in April the data is now generally 2.6%!

– I look at March – 3.5% (in Russia. – A.K.), in Germany – 7.4, in the eurozone as a whole – 6.9, in France – 5.7, in the USA – 5 … – the president shook his head without any joy. – In Brazil it is higher than ours .. .

But this, about Brazil, was really annoying. Brazil deserved a better fate.

“3.5 is March,” Maxim Reshetnikov drew attention. “Now, in April, we see, according to weekly data, inflation of 2.6 per year!

They completely immersed themselves in the presentation. She had complete control over their imagination. After all, it was imagination that was involved in their activity now before all other mental processes.

– They also have March, – the president dug up the figures in the charts.

– Yes, they are also declining, – agreed Maxim Reshetnikov, although Vladimir Putin, it seems, did not mean that, – but nevertheless, we see the measures that have been taken. Moreover, we created a very powerful reserve for lowering inflation for this year last year! We will not have tariff indexation, we have a very good harvest!

Vladimir Putin looked at him in a paternal way, with some kind of even gentle chuckle in his eyes. Yes, Maxim Reshetnikov was perfect and just good.

“And we have dampers,” the minister continued, “because part of the difference in inflation was due to the decisions taken two years ago, when we have flexible export duties, and they prevent the transfer of world inflation to us!” As a result, Vladimir Vladimirovich, our assessment of the forecast for the growth rates of the world’s economies for this year … If possible, the next slide! ..

He even wanted, it seems, to help the president turn the page.

“I look at the public debt…” Vladimir Putin was in no hurry.

Why hurry? He admired the current slides. There was something.

“The public debt figures speak for themselves,” Maxim Reshetnikov agreed.

— 14.9 (% of GDP.— “b”) – in Russia, 121.7 – in the USA … – the president, it seems, could not see enough.

“In principle, among European countries, only Germany produced relatively, let’s say,” the minister not only agreed, but actively commented.

— Eurozone — 90.9… Germany — 66.5… France — 111.1… — Vladimir Putin slowly seemed to bite each figure.

Yes, it seemed to be just a song.

And the president came out on code:

– The national debt of the country’s GDP is 14.9 … A good indicator!

But still, in fairness, it was necessary to say about the empathy that these joint observations were full of. About sympathy for Western colleagues, which the interlocutors were not going to hide. About that universal responsiveness of the Russian soul, which Fyodor Dostoevsky described in his Pushkin speech.

They will blow up our Kremlin, and we will sympathize with them. Because we are not them.

“And, accordingly,” the minister continued, “the forecast for the growth rate of the world economy in 2023 … We see a range of 1.3–1.6% for developed economies — this is the forecast of the IMF (International Monetary Fund.— “b”). But our forecast is 1.2…

It was just being honest. Because, to be honest, then it will be easier.

— But this is a feature of the forecast, — Maxim Reshetnikov made a reservation. — You know that our forecast, as a rule, is corrected upwards from the estimate.

And here, excuse me, it turns out to be less. Because to be honest. We wanted as always, but it turned out worse.

– We are still a little more conservative, because the budget, and indeed, some risks are laid, and, as a rule, then we really added plus all these years, and the IMF forecasts, as a rule, then minus. ..— the minister confessed. “Therefore, I think that at the end of the year we will be among the leaders among developed countries in terms of economic growth rates.

Especially if the results are summed up by those who made the forecasts.

“God forbid,” Vladimir Putin said thoughtfully, examining an album with graphs. “This is a forecast…

“This is an estimate for 2023,” the minister disagreed.

– Is this your estimate? the president clarified.

“Yes, our assessment for Russia,” the minister admitted. A.K.). And these are the MVEF numbers …

— The IMF puts the eurozone 0.8 (% of GDP growth.— “b”)? Vladimir Putin asked incredulously.

– Yes, less than us … – it seems that the minister was even a little shy.

– And Germany goes into the red?! The president looked almost shocked.

What is it, his face said. They don’t know how to take a hit at all.

“Yes, such assessments…” the minister shrugged.

Of course, facts are stubborn things. Here it was necessary to understand now only one thing: could they, frankly, survive? Did they have a chance? Or maybe it’s not about the people who govern Western countries, who are weak, if only because they are people, but in force majeure circumstances?

And Maksim Reshetnikov outlined these circumstances to the President’s face. And this, too, had to be said honestly:

“It’s inevitable,” the minister sighed, “because such a drastic forced energy transition, caused by the rejection of our energy carriers, undermines in principle the foundations of the competitiveness of very many industries in Europe. Therefore, inevitably, European consumers and the European economy cannot but pay for this in the end… This is all manifesting itself… What, in principle, we have been talking about all these years…

I thought he almost cried.

Andrey Kolesnikov