Elections passed without surprises: with consolidation around power

The 2022 regional elections did not come without surprises. Gubernatorial campaigns in 14 regions ended in victory for the current heads of regions and those appointed by the president. Two current governors and six acting governors received over 80% election results – Anton Alikhanov (Kaliningrad region), Alexey Tsydenov (Buryatia), Yuri Zaitsev (Mari El), Alexander Avdeev (Vladimir region), Pavel Malkov (Ryazan region) , Maxim Egorov (Tambov region), Mikhail Evraev (Yaroslavl region), Vladimir Mazur (Tomsk region). Moreover, in the Tomsk region in the 2017 elections, the former governor Sergei Zhvachkin received 60%. The campaign in Udmurtia became the most competitive – there the current head Alexander Brechalov received 64%, and his closest rival Alexander Syrov (KPRF) – 20%. In all regions except Udmurtia, the results of the heads turned out to be higher than in the previous elections.

The turnout in the gubernatorial elections turned out to be comparable to the elections of previous years, despite the use of two-day and three-day voting (one-day elections were held only in the Sverdlovsk region, Buryatia and Mari El). And somewhere it turned out to be even lower than in the one-day elections in 2017, for example, in the Kaliningrad, Yaroslavl, Saratov regions and Karelia.

Of the six regions where deputies of legislative assemblies were elected, in five (Udmurtia, Krasnodar Territory, Penza Region, Saratov Region, North Ossetia), United Russia received more than 50% of the lists (see chart). According to the lists, representatives of the three old parliamentary parties of the parliamentary opposition passed to the legislature. Only in Sakhalin, United Russia won less than half of the votes on the lists – 47%. And only in this region, the fifth parliamentary party “New People” made it to the Regional Duma on the lists this year.

United Russia has either confirmed or improved the result it had in 2017, says Deputy Secretary of the General Council of United Russia Sergey Perminov. The first deputy chairman of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, Yuri Afonin, states that the results of the party are slightly lower than in 2017: “In North Ossetia, they added 2 times [уступив «Справедливой России»]. In the Saratov region and Udmurtia – approximately at the same level, slightly lower in Krasnodar, on Sakhalin and in the Penza region. We can say that a solid 2nd place. In the elections of the City Duma, the decrease in the result of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation where elections are held only in districts – in Vladivostok or Omsk: there are one and two mandates, respectively, Afonin says. “The results are conditionally satisfactory. It is difficult to expect otherwise, because now the voters have no interest in the elections, the country is facing challenges. And besides, during such periods, support for the authorities always grows,” he says.

In almost all regions, the results of the LDPR have grown, and the number of single-mandate members is growing, which indicates the maturity of the party and its candidates, says the head of the party’s central apparatus, Alexei Didenko. A Just Russia’s results in terms of the number of mandates are slightly higher than in 2017, for example, the party’s deputies will appear in the legislative assemblies of the Krasnodar Territory, Sakhalin, Dmitry Gusev, a member of the presidium of the party’s central council, notes: head of the regional branch. At the same time, in the Yaroslavl Region, which was successful for the party, in the elections to the City Duma, the party took only one mandate (in 2021, the Socialist-Revolutionaries won in two districts in the elections to the State Duma in the region. – Vedomosti). According to Gusev, the current campaign is characterized by the fact that there were very few intrigues in the elections, except for the elections to the city dumas in some single-mandate constituencies.

The past elections can be assessed positively, the press service of the New People quotes State Duma Vice Speaker Vladislav Davankov, the party has a good result in the elections to the regional Duma of Sakhalin, one candidate is running in the district. “New People” also went to the City Duma of Barnaul and Khural of Kyzyl.

The main factor in the elections was the electoral consolidation – a high level of support for the president and all the forces associated with him, says Konstantin Kostin, head of the Civil Society Development Fund. “The results of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and Just Russia are slightly worse than five years ago, so we can say that there is a shortage of electoral supply on the left flank,” he says. Alexei Chesnakov, director of the Center for Current Politics, agrees with Kostin’s conclusions and adds that the campaign was difficult for the LDPR because of the death of party leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky, but the party has shown that it is able to adapt: removed.”

The discussion that unfolded in the spring about whether elections should be held under conditions of a special military operation or not showed that those who advocated their preservation turned out to be right, says Mikhail Vinogradov, president of the Petersburg Politics Foundation. “In fact, we can say that the parties of the parliamentary opposition missed the season without showing bright campaigns. The Liberal Democratic Party because of the death of Zhirinovsky, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation because they do not want to conflict with the authorities in 2022. But there are situations when the parties skipped the season and then won,” says Vinogradov. No foreign policy events had a negative impact on electoral behavior these days, he says.