Elections in Bavaria and Hesse were won by the right and far right

The ruling Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, showed its worst result in history in local elections in the federal states of Bavaria and Hesse. Much more impressive results were shown by the German right – the conservative bloc CDU/CSU and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

The CDU’s sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), won a landslide victory in Bavaria with a result of 36.4%. This is an unsatisfactory result for the CSU, which nevertheless demonstrates the party’s convincing leadership in Bavaria. AfD took 2nd place for the first time with 16%. The SPD set an anti-record, gaining only 8% – the worst result of the party in Bavaria in its entire history. The CDU performed well in the elections in Hesse, gaining 34.4% of the vote. AfD also took 2nd place with a score of 18.4%. The SPD received only 15.2%, almost 5% less than in 2018.

The election results show strong dissatisfaction among Germans with the government. According to survey data from ARD-Deutschland Trend, four out of five Germans have a negative assessment of the activities of the Scholz government. For example, in Hesse, the leader of the party list from the SPD is German Interior Minister Nancy Feser, who is reproached for indecisive actions in the fight against the flow of illegal migrants. At the same time, the AfD, which advocates strict immigration control, is isolated – other political forces refuse to cooperate with it, and the growth of its popularity threatens the lives of its leaders. On October 4, an attempt was made on the life of AfD co-chairman Tino Chrupalla. A message was published on the party’s website that the politician was injected with a needle containing an unknown substance. He was admitted to the intensive care unit at the hospital. Earlier, AfD candidate for Landat Andreas Jurka was severely beaten, after which he withdrew his candidacy.

The failure of the SPD in the elections indicates a low level of support for the government, notes Alexander Kamkin, a senior researcher at the sector for analysis of political changes and identity at IMEMO RAS. Of the ruling coalition, only the Greens can boast of a decent result, which is explained by their united electorate voting for the green agenda. The SPD is in a deep crisis, in which Scholz himself is involved. The CDU, with a successful combination of circumstances, on the contrary, can increase its rating, but this party is gradually losing its appearance. According to Kamkin, the difference between social democrats and Christian democrats is blurring, leading to voting for the politician’s personality rather than for the political program. As for the AfD, it will continue to strengthen its position and, as a result, will face increased pressure on it, the expert summarizes.

The elections can really be assessed as a big failure for the ruling coalition, says Artem Sokolov, a researcher at the Center for European Studies at MGIMO. It was the three ruling parties that suffered the greatest losses; at the same time, the strengthening of the right flank of German politics – the CDU and the AfD – is obvious. The success of the latter this time is not a local gain in the territory of the former GDR, where the party is traditionally strong. According to the expert, the unsatisfactory performance of the current government in the field of economics and migration has led to the fact that the AfD has supporters in western Germany, in Bavaria and Hesse, which seemed difficult regions for the German far-right. Among the AfD’s new voters are former CDU and Green supporters, as well as people who have never voted before. At the same time, open persecution of the AfD continues and a ban on the party is also likely, Sokolov sums up.