Election turnout in Kazakhstan decreased compared to last elections

Turnout during the November 20 early presidential elections in the country’s capital Astana and former capital Alma-Ata was less than 50%, according to Kazakhstan’s CEC data.

In Astana, 48.6% of voters came to the polls, and in Almaty, which became the scene of unrest in January 2022, 28.5%. The average turnout in Kazakhstan was 69.4%.

Incumbent President Kassym-Jomart was re-elected for a seven-year term with 81.3% of the vote. On November 20, the CEC of Kazakhstan recognized the elections as valid. On the morning of November 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Tokayev on his victory.

In 2019, when Tokayev was elected for the first time, the turnout was 77.4%, including in Astana (at that time – Nursultan) 68.9%, and in Alma-Ata – 52.2%.

In general, the turnout in the country is lower than in the last elections in 2019 due to the fact that Kazakhstanis are focused on solving their socio-economic problems, says Daria Chizhova, director of the Information and Analytical Center for the Study of Socio-Political Processes in the Post-Soviet Space. For the incumbent head of state, these elections are important, since he is no longer participating in them as the “successor” of the first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, the expert emphasizes.

In Kazakhstan, they did not begin to “stretch the turnout” much during the constitutional referendum on June 5, says political analyst Yevgeny Minchenko. Then it was 68.44% on average in the country, and the largest cities failed in this indicator: in Almaty, 33.3% of voters came to the plebiscite, and in Nursultan – 41.13%.

“At the same time, Tokayev shows that he wants to have a more transparent and democratic mandate than his predecessor,” Minchenko continues. The President of Kazakhstan, without overstating the turnout, received a more legitimate mandate to implement reforms, Chizhova believes.

According to Chizhova, the turnout in Alma-Ata is low due to the “intellectual opposition” of old townspeople and the middle class, as well as “social tension that arises due to the active migration of rural residents, their disorder and radicalization.” In Astana, according to her, the low turnout already follows urbanization according to the “Moscow model”: the educated middle class moves there, which is skeptical of the authorities, including because of their own high demands on them.