Economists have given an alarming forecast for 2024

Alexey Krichevsky, financial analyst, author of the economic telegram channel:

“GDP will most likely continue to grow. Up to 3-4% at the end of the year. Moreover, mainly due to the military-industrial complex, as it is today. For the most part, we are talking about unproductive expenses, that is, the industry, while producing certain products, does not create further added value. Yes, there is an expectation to expand the supply of energy resources to Asia, there is hope that the NWO will end in 2024, and that relations with the European Union and the United States, with great difficulty, will begin to improve. However, the government still relies exclusively on the military-industrial complex and the export of raw materials. As for the budget, it was adopted with a deficit that continues to increase. But the parameters for calculating taxes on oil sales are more or less adequate – $60 per barrel of Urals. Income will be raised through inflation and increased taxation, since borrowing is very expensive. Actually, the ruble exchange rate is conducive to slightly covering the deficit – there is a possibility that in 2024 the dollar will finally consolidate at a level above 100 rubles. Moreover, the population has already been prepared for this by several “entries” to this course. Real disposable income of the population, if it grows, will not be by much, at most two percent, taking into account inflation.”

Natalya Milchakova, leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global:

“In 2024, the Russian economy will be influenced by a number of circumstances that contribute to growth. First of all, these are government investments related to both national projects and state defense orders, high levels of employment and wages, as well as consumer demand, the development of import substitution, growth in the manufacturing industry, agriculture and energy. As for the oil market, world prices will remain high (on average the Brent price will be $80-90 per barrel), and the Urals discount to Brent will remain low, and this will have a positive impact on budget commodity revenues. A one-time tax on excess profits of corporations, which will go to the treasury no later than the end of January 2024, will become an important factor in replenishing the revenue base. A tight monetary policy and the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters will help slow down the growth of inflation. Accordingly, we expect the following final indicators: GDP growth – 2.5-2.7%; budget deficit – 0.5-1% of GDP; growth of real incomes of the population – 5-6%; consumer price index – 4-5%; The average exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar is 90.”

Mark Goikhman, analyst at Capital Skills Financial Academy:

“GDP is expected to increase by 1.5-2%. This year’s high (3.5%) result is largely due to the “low base effect” of the comparison: in 2022, the economy lost 2.1%, but this year it began to recover. In addition, the current rise is associated with rising energy prices and a very significant strengthening of currencies against the ruble. A similar scenario should not be expected in 2024. Economic growth will be hampered by the high key rate of the Central Bank, as well as a shortage of labor and available capacity in many industries. Inflation will be 5-6%, again due to the increased rate and limited weakening of the ruble. Russian currency exchange rate

will be under pressure: among other things, it will be affected by rising import costs, restrictions on export revenues, and high budget costs. On average, we can assume a fairly wide range of 90-110 rubles per dollar.

It will be extremely difficult to keep the budget deficit at the planned level of 1.6 trillion rubles. He can meet these parameters only under very favorable circumstances. It is not entirely clear how it will be possible to generate revenues of 35.1 trillion rubles, which is 22% higher than the 2023 figure. There has not been such an increase in the entire modern history of Russia.”

Andrey Loboda, economist, director of communications at BitRiver:

“In 2024, the economy has every chance of growing by 3%, which will be facilitated by several powerful factors: increased government spending, stability with state defense orders, as well as with the demand for Russian raw materials in China and India. The financial stability of the country will be supported by the efficiency of budget execution, the full transfer of export proceeds to the jurisdiction of the Russian Federation, as well as a reduction in the volume of capital withdrawal. Inflation will remain 4.5%, the dollar exchange rate will be on average 85-95 rubles, the state budget deficit will be no more than 1% of GDP, the average price of Brent oil will be $80-83 per barrel. Real incomes of the population will increase by 3-4%.”

Oleg Buklemishev, director of the Center for Economic Policy Research, Faculty of Economics, Moscow State University:

“In terms of GDP, my forecast is less than one percent. Let’s say about 0.7%. All the most obvious measures have already been taken, all the low-hanging fruits have been collected, the potential of the military-industrial complex and related industries has been used to the maximum. The remaining sectors will not grow by and large. Inflation, despite all the efforts of the Central Bank, will be about 5%. The ruble exchange rate will weaken and reach approximately 105 per dollar. Exports have nowhere to grow, imports can only be partially replaced, and capital outflow continues. The budget deficit will not exceed one and a half percent of GDP. Real incomes of the population will increase by two percent, taking into account inflation suppressed by the Central Bank. Russian Urals oil will be sold at an average price of $60 per barrel, which is unlikely to be much higher. Now most of it is exported through the eastern corridors and has a very indirect relationship with the reference grade Brent.”

Alexey Vedev, director of the Center for Structural Research, RANEPA:

“The economy will grow in the range of 1-1.3% as the recovery cycle from the 2022 recession is now complete. In addition, its potential is undermined by large government spending on unproductive expenditure items, and business is limited in its development by sanctions pressure and high interest rates of banks. Negative oil price dynamics are seen as a serious risk: this factor could negatively affect financial stability. The federal budget and the military-industrial complex will remain the key drivers. The ruble exchange rate will be in the range of 93-95, with less volatility than in 2023. The Central Bank will not be able to bring inflation to the target of 4%, which by the end of the year will be 5-5.5%. As for the average price of Russian oil, which recently dropped below $60 per barrel, next year it is unlikely to exceed this mark. The discount can vary in the range of 15-20% depending on external conditions.

Since the budget now looks optimistic, spending may have to be cut throughout the year. The deficit will not exceed 1% of GDP. With a high degree of probability, the tax burden on the population and business will be tightened, various excise taxes and duties will increase, and preferential regimes, on the contrary, will be abolished. Real disposable incomes of Russians will grow by no more than 1-2%. There are several reasons: weak indexation of pensions and salaries, high inflation and interest on loans, increased taxes.”

Konstantin Ordov, head of the Department of Financial Markets at Plekhanov Russian Economic University:

“GDP growth rates will not exceed 1-2%, since due to the Central Bank’s tightening of monetary policy, effective demand, the key driver of the economy (in combination with increased government spending), will significantly decrease. The budget deficit will not exceed 1% of GDP due to an increase in exports and the average price of oil. The most pressing issue remains inflation, which in 2024 will be 5-6%. The Central Bank will not be allowed to reach the target of 4%, since the authorities will have to make a fundamental choice between stimulating economic activity and anti-inflationary measures. Tightening monetary policy has an extremely negative impact on the economy. In the first quarter of 2024, problems in the mortgage market will worsen, which will finally come to a standstill. As a result, the regulator will be “asked” to change course towards easing monetary policy (MCP).

The ruble exchange rate may well go beyond 110-120 per dollar if in January-March 2024 the volume of expenditure of public funds remains at the level of the first half of 2023. In this case, inflation will exceed 7%. In general, this is a story with many unknowns and potential development scenarios. As for real incomes of the population, by the end of the year, which may turn out to be disappointing, they risk going into negative territory. People will spend more and more money on servicing loans (today more than 40 million Russians are bank borrowers), strengthening an already dangerous trend. Nothing too radical should happen to the prices of Russian oil: they will not fall below $60-65 per barrel of Urals, and if favorable conditions on the world market continue, they can reach $70.”

Nikita Maslennikov, leading expert at the Center for Political Technologies:

“The economy entered 2024 frankly overheated. Its macrodynamics will be weaker than in 2023, since the Central Bank will keep the key rate at the current level until the middle of the year at best. And in the worst case, it will increase the rate depending on the degree of inflationary pressure. Accordingly, the GDP growth rate will be half the current 3.5% – in the region of 1.7-1.8%. In addition, the fiscal stimulus will weaken – from 2% to 1.5% of GDP. We still have quite a few structural constraints, such as labor shortages. External circumstances are also not the most favorable: the global economy is still slowing down, the prospects are rather uncertain. There is a possibility of a decrease in demand for Russian exports. As for consumer prices, their dynamics will be determined by many factors. In December, inflation expectations rose in Russia by two percentage points. This indicates a fairly high risk of continued inflationary pressure, at least during the first half of the year. The Central Bank’s tightening of monetary policy has not yet fully worked: consumer demand is just beginning to cool. I think that by the end of 2024 inflation will be 4.5-5%.

The ruble exchange rate is difficult to predict, since it largely depends on the situation with the trade and balance of payments. But it has a good chance of staying in the current range of 90-95 per dollar. And if the payment and settlement infrastructure in national currencies does not fail, if there are no delays in export receipts, then the rate may well go into the 85-90 corridor. The budget deficit will be about one percent; I don’t expect a sharp increase. Real incomes of the population will be closely related to the dynamics of GDP, which means that at the end of the year they will amount to 2.5-3%. This is approximately half as much as in 2023. The situation with the oil price is not very clear, and here the more important forecast is not so much for Urals, but for the size of the discount, which will be reduced to $5-6 per barrel. I think the price will not be lower than in 2023. That is, about $66, and in some months it will reach $70.”