Economist Zubets does not expect real disposable income to grow by 4.4%: “The picture is different”

“The situation is not the best”

In 2023, real disposable income of the population increased by 4.4%, Vladimir Putin said during the VTB Russia Calling forum. Meanwhile, this figure, announced by the president, needs at least an expert explanation. If only because we are talking about the “average temperature in a hospital”: there are many social categories of the population in the country, and each has its own income situation.

In general, there are enough nuances with the income of the population. For example, the impact of wage growth on dynamics was three times greater than the effect of social payments. In the third quarter, out of a 4.9% increase in real cash income, wages accounted for 4.5 percentage points, social payments (including pensions) – 1.4 percentage points, business income – 0.7 percentage points .

But there is one more important circumstance: the process of reducing inequality, which Rosstat recorded in 2022, has stopped. So, if in the third quarter of last year the share of the poorest 10% of the population (9.9 thousand rubles per month) accounted for 2% of the total cash income, then by the end of the third quarter of 2023 the figure did not change. While for the 10% of Russians with the highest incomes (from 149 thousand rubles per month) it increased by 0.3 percentage points. The topic is inseparable from the concept of “purchasing power,” which in a number of sectors of the economy manifests itself rather as “purchasing inability.” Thus, today 60% of the population claim in opinion polls that they have enough income only for basic needs from paycheck to paycheck, and 20% cannot even boast of this.

“I think that at the end of the year, real disposable (that is, minus mandatory payments and adjusted for inflation) incomes of Russians will grow by less than 4.4%,” says Alexei Zubets, a professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, in an interview with MK. . – For example, just yesterday I came across the news that Russians are cutting back on spending on New Year’s gifts for children. What’s actually strange is that they save on children last. It follows from this that the situation is far from the most brilliant, and that the figure of real income that the authorities operate refers to October (in annual terms). In November-December 2022, consumer spending fell sharply, which surprised me at the time. Accordingly, history may well repeat itself now. In terms of spending, the first six months of 2023 turned out to be quite depressive, and the lowest point in consumer activity occurred in May. In this sense, I am waiting for statistics on sales of fireworks launchers, which, judging by the preliminary data known to me, will be very modest. Of course, this is not an integral measure of well-being, but it is very indicative…

– How was the official growth figure of 4.4% achieved?

– First of all, due to the growth of salaries, as well as pension payments, which were indexed. However, we need to look not at real income as a whole, but at data for individual groups, including the most disadvantaged. And there the picture will be different. We do not question the figures from Rosstat, that is not the point. There is an understanding among experts that we need to focus on the lower part of the consumer basket, which means a lot for people with low incomes. This includes, in particular, chicken, eggs, potatoes, vegetables, and so on. It has its own inflation, which must be taken into account when discussing the situation with the real disposable income of the population.