Economist Porfiryev named four challenges that await the Russian economy

Demographics and space may slow down modernization

Four main challenges for modernizing the domestic economy were proposed at the General Meeting of the Russian Academy of Sciences by academician and economist Boris Porfiryev.

Firstly, according to the academician, we would need to increase the population. The slowdown in the growth of the birth rate and the general decline in numbers are now such that even with a sharp surge that will begin right now, by 2050 we will simply remain within the current figure – there will be just under 140 million of us. In the case of the basic state of affairs, the number of Russians will fall in 27 years to 135 million.

The second challenge, according to the academician, is related to technological lag and dependence.

“We like to talk about the problem of the oil and gas needle,” says the scientist. – About 20 years ago, academician Viktor Ivanter said that everything is fine with our exports, but our imports are bad. In the sense that we could produce the purchased machines and equipment ourselves.”

The problem, according to Porfiryev, worsened after 2022; in connection with the sanctions imposed on Russia, a corresponding impetus was given, and today we already have accelerated growth in the manufacturing industry. Thus, over the 10 months from January 2023 to October, the share of domestic mechanical engineering in the country increased by 23% (including computers – by a third), transport – by more than 30%, machine tool building – by more than 50%.

“Our GDP grew by 3.2%,” President Vladimir Putin announced this recently at the “Russia Calling” forum,” the academician noted.

The third challenge, he said, is the scientific and technological challenge. “Here, unfortunately, we are experiencing a decline,” said Porfiryev. “The share of the scientific sector, which was 1.7% 10 years ago, is only 1.4% in 21.”

The scientist emphasized the great role of a unified science management system, which does not yet exist. Here he suggested looking back at the country’s Science and Technology Committee since 1948, which led to a number of important projects, including the first nuclear power plant and the first space satellite. “Having studied our successes, the United States created an advanced technology agency, DARPA, similar to our Committee. Probably many people missed that last year a similar agency was created by Great Britain,” said Boris Nikolaevich.

The scientist called the fourth challenge a spatial challenge. “Is the territory of Russia a wealth or a curse? – Porfiryev asked the question and immediately answered: – For economists, the answer is clear. This is, of course, wealth.” Here, according to him, among other measures, it is very important to competently manage the regions and connect them, for example, according to the principle pursued by the North Siberian Railway project.

Help “MK”. The North Siberian Railway is a planned strategic railway about 2 thousand kilometers long, which should connect the railway network of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug – Ugra with the Baikal-Amur Mainline.