Economist Nikolaev explained the rapid fall of the ruble and gave a forecast of the exchange rate

The dollar and the euro continue to confidently capture new heights in Russia. During exchange trading on June 30, the dollar went off scale for 89 rubles, and the euro came close to 97 rubles. The last time we saw such figures was only in the “critical days” of the spring of 2022, when there was a currency collapse caused by geopolitical factors. Today, it seems, there are no special reasons for panic either in politics or in the economy.

Even the Wagner rebellion quickly died out without visible consequences. Why, then, is the ruble falling and at what levels can this fall stop?

The current exchange rate of the ruble has reached its lowest level in the last 15 months. Since the beginning of the week alone, it has fallen against the dollar and the euro by 4-5 rubles, and since the first days of June by 8 and 9 rubles, respectively. In some exchangers, an “American” is sold for 99 rubles, and a “European” for 108.

And this is at the top of summer – July is considered the hottest month of the year, and Russians traditionally make the biggest plans for it in terms of vacations. In general, we did not expect such a start of the holiday period …

Will our national currency return to its previous values ​​and when? We asked Igor Nikolaev, Doctor of Economics, chief researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, about this.

– The mutiny of PMC “Wagner”, which provoked the depreciation of the ruble, has long been exhausted. But the ruble continues to fall in price by leaps and bounds. What is the reason?

– At the beginning of the week, the ruble was a little won back the fall, but then the dollar went up again. Uncertainty remains high, force majeure events increase the risks of ruble depreciation. And when there is a lot of uncertainty, people have a desire to insure for a rainy day. Although we are talking about de-dollarization and de-eurovization, we are insuring ourselves against risks in the old fashioned way – stocking up on the usual currency. Of course, many other factors play a role in the weakening of the ruble.

– Which ones exactly?

– In particular, the imbalance of the federal budget, disappointing forecasts for energy exports amid expectations of a global recession, including in China. The end of the tax period, when the supply of the currency decreases. But that’s all, as they say, to the heap. The main factor is the ongoing geopolitical tension, insurance against future possible risks by the fact that the economy is moving towards foreign currency.

– A year ago, after the spring financial shock, our ruble not only recovered, but even noticeably strengthened to 55-56 per dollar. Is this possible today? When to run to exchange offices for cheap currency?

– That’s definitely not to be expected. A year ago, the export of our goods increased sharply. According to the Central Bank, in value terms for 2022, it amounted to $588 billion. This is a lot, almost a record.

Oil prices rose, and we quickly reoriented its exports to other markets. Significantly decreased imports – hence the need for foreign currency.

Now the situation is exactly the opposite. Even according to the Central Bank, the export of goods in value terms in 2023 is expected to be in the range of $435 billion, 26% less than last year.

The ruble will not win back its course strongly. The situation from last year is different for the worse.

– What can be the dollar exchange rate in July and until the end of summer? Some experts talk about 100 rubles, and such a figure is already putting pressure on the mind …

– It seems to me that not the dollar, but the euro will exceed 100 rubles this summer. In any case, it will reach this value. But the dollar is unlikely, although such a possibility cannot be ruled out. However, the Central Bank has already announced that it will raise the key rate, I hope that the dollar will not break beyond the 100-ruble mark.

– The exchange rate of the ruble of ordinary Russians, to put it mildly, who do not often visit abroad, is worried because it directly affects prices in the store. What can we expect?

– Everything is clear here, prices have already begun to rise in the consumer market. It’s amazing how statistics can still show us some pretty, reassuring inflation numbers.

A long time ago we did a study on alternative inflation. We came to the conclusion that there is a gap of 2-3% between the real (store) price level and what official statistics show. I won’t tell you a specific figure, I haven’t done such calculations now. But I want to hope that Rosstat will calculate consumer prices more carefully and its final figures will not cause laughter among those people who go to stores.