Economist Lizan gave a forecast for 2024: “Russia will not be left without money”

At the same time, he identified the main “enemies” of Russia in financial terms

Russia withstood the sanctions blow of last year and coped with continued pressure in 2023, stated economist, head of the analytical bureau of the SONAR-2050 project Ivan Lizan. The expert believes that the country will not be left without money: there will be enough of it to finance the Northern Military District, and for national projects, and for the restoration of Novorossiya. True, import substitution is still stalled, and there are not enough workers in the regions.

Economist Ivan Lizan recalled that the EU alone introduced nine packages of sanctions against the Russian Federation in 2022.

– This year the rate of introduction of restrictions has decreased. Of the three sanctions packages, two were aimed at tightening export controls, the last package hitting the diamond industry. Just as last year’s blow was withstood, so too was this year’s blow, the expert said.

At the same time, he noted that we need to thank our Asian partners for this – India and China. Both countries are actively buying Russian energy resources, and China has replaced most of the European technologies that the Russian Federation used to catch up with modernization and maintain an acceptable standard of living.

The economist named the main “enemies” of Russia in financial terms. Last year it was discounts. Oil and other energy resources had to be sold at a deep discount. For coal, discounts reached 50-60%. This year, discounts have decreased, and the share of transportation costs for oil exports has decreased.

– If in March of this year the delivery of oil cost about half its price, now this delivery is two to three times more expensive than to Europe, but in terms of a barrel or ton this is completely acceptable, especially taking into account the fact that it needs to be transported further , – Lizan explained.

Speaking about government revenues by the end of 2023, the analyst assessed the situation as follows: “Everything is fine.” But there are nuances:

– Our ruble has weakened. This is a consequence of the fact that there were problems in foreign trade at the beginning of the year, and at the same time imports recovered. However, restrictions on the return of foreign currency earnings were not introduced in time. But now we have a new equilibrium exchange rate of around 90 rubles, it suits everyone, especially the budget, since the lion’s share of income is generated through the sale of oil,” the expert said.

Russia will not be left without money, Ivan Lizan is sure:

– There is money to finance military operations, and there is also money for the implementation of national projects. Money will be found to restore Novorossiya. Therefore, you need to worry not about the income and expenses of the federal budget – here they will combine debits with credits. We need to worry about the state of our most advanced technological industries,” Lizan said.

He listed reasons for concern: because of sanctions, plans for the construction of civil aircraft this year were disrupted, not everything is in order with the auto industry, we have lost all the localization of production that was achieved since the beginning of the 2000s, and now we are starting over. We have problems with agricultural machinery: tractors have doubled in price, an expert estimates.

– We need to have a serious conversation with China about opening assembly plants in Russia jointly with the Chinese. There is a lot of work, but globally at the state level the sanctions did not break us and did not affect the course of policy. Moreover, a number of countries that actively introduced sanctions are already tired of them, for example, in Slovakia. And it will not be the last, the analyst is sure.

At the same time, he noted that in the past year, the Russian economy was dragged down by the military-industrial complex and construction. However, against this background, there is a loss of high competencies and a stall in import substitution.

Finally, another problem is staff shortage, in particular in new regions. According to expert estimates, the DPR lacks 100 thousand workers.