Economist Belyaev spoke about the dollar exchange rate in 2023

The exchange rate of the ruble, which steadfastly endured all the hardships and hardships of economic sanctions from May to November, began to weaken. On December 15 in the afternoon on the Moscow Exchange, the dollar was traded at 64.5 rubles, and the euro – at 68.7 rubles. Our national currency fell by 50 and 30 kopecks respectively. What to expect in the near future, I decided to find out “MK”.

At a meeting of the Council for Strategic Development and National Projects on Thursday, Vladimir Putin said that the Russian ruble in 2022 has become one of the strongest currencies in the world. As the president emphasized, its strengthening is connected, among other things, with a new scheme for paying for gas in rubles for unfriendly countries. As you know, this decision was made this spring.

The stable exchange rate of the ruble is also explained by measures to regulate the outflow of capital – and in general by a responsible financial policy.

Yes, there was a time when the national currency really showed miracles of stability in relation to the “American” and “European”. It’s no joke: already in June, the dollar was worth 50 rubles – and this is after in March they gave as many as 120 “wooden” dollars for a “buck”! Even the government itself tried more than once or twice to weaken the ruble in order to support exporters.

No matter how many measures were taken… And everything worked out, as a matter of course – evolutionarily, without administrative interference.

How long our ruble will continue to “free fall” and at what point it will stop is not an idle question for our fellow citizens. Its volatility affects the prices of groceries and many other everyday goods.

What to expect in the future? We asked this question to financial analyst, candidate of economic sciences Mikhail Belyaev:

– The national currency is based on the national economy and is its reflection, he answers. – If we look at the data of Rosstat, we will see that in the third quarter the pace of economic development in Russia amounted to 4% with a minus sign.

– Is it a big drop?

– Minus 4% in annual terms is a serious drop, not 1.9%, as sometimes happened before. You can even talk about the sharpness of the fall, we just “pecked”.

Steady progress and smooth development of the economy in the first half of the year sank.

The second reason for the weakening of the ruble is inflation, which cannot calm down in any way. It subsided in the autumn, but now it is starting to accelerate, for some groups of goods it is quite active. I can’t say that inflation has been beaten and I don’t see any downward trend.

There are two main factors that affect the exchange rate. In the first half of the year, our ruble against the dollar, despite the sanctions, looked more preferable, there was a certain balance, the American was in the region of 60-61 rubles. The third quarter made its own adjustments.

– Securities, shares are also traded with a minus?

– Of course, this is reflected in the quotations of exchange trading. The stock exchange is an indicator of the state of the economy.

– But how can we “curb” inflation?

– Our tight monetary policy is not aimed at the development of enterprises. It does not fight the development of inflation and hinders the growth of production in the country.

– To what values ​​can our ruble fall?

– My forecast will not be pessimistic. In Russia, the fall is not so serious as to expect a sharp collapse. And today’s American economy is not in the best shape. I believe that the dollar will cost around 65-66 rubles, no more.

– When will its “rebound” to the previous values ​​begin?

– Everything is more complicated here. After the economy goes into development, it will begin to recover. And this is possible if we begin to stimulate enterprises.

That’s when we can talk about the recovery of the ruble. More precisely, not to speak, but to observe stabilization such as it was in summer and autumn.