Economic forecast for 2023 – Economics – Kommersant

The year 2023 has come, and Kommersant offers readers an economic forecast for it. Experts answer questions about what will happen to the dollar to ruble exchange rate, how world oil prices will change, what inflation will turn out to be, and how the dollar and euro will behave in the world currency market.

1. What will be the GDP?

2. The exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar?

3. The price of oil?

4. Inflation?

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Sergey Khestanov, macroeconomic adviser to the CEO of Otkritie Investments:

1. Decrease GDP will be 1.5–2.0%. The main intrigue of this forecast is related to the real effectiveness of sanctions against Russian exports and the ability of Russian companies to resist them. A moderate decline in oil exports and production is expected, and stable operation of most industries is expected. The ability of the Russian economy to adapt, demonstrated in 2022 (the decline was half the estimates of March-April 2022), suggests that the inertial scenario is quite applicable for most industries (not the worst in difficult circumstances).

2. Ruble’s exchange rate — $75–80. Sanctions against Russian imports have proved ineffective, and sanctions against the backbone of Russian exports have only just begun, and it is too early to assess their real effect. For more than a decade and a half, it was the floating exchange rate of the ruble that ensured the effective adaptation of the Russian economy to changing external conditions. This is what makes this indicator the most difficult to predict.

3. Brent oil price by the end of 2023 it will be in the corridor of $80–90. The key is the assumption that the OPEC+ deal will basically remain workable and the regulation of production quotas will keep the price close to current levels. Despite some friction in March 2020, the OPEC+ deal has shown good resilience, suggesting it will continue into 2023. The real consequences of sanctions against Russian oil and oil products will not appear until the second half of 2023. Then the ability of Russian companies to reorient exports to the so-called friendly countries will be clear.

4. Inflation – 4-5%. The inertial scenario, while maintaining a moderately tight monetary policy, assumes a gradual return of inflation to the Central Bank’s target. The experience of 2015 suggests that in the absence of external shocks, this is quite possible.

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Nikita Maslennikov, leading expert in economics at the Center for Political Technologies:

1. Everything will depend on the development of the global economy. Base Case: A shallow and short-lived recession in a few major economies, and growth rates GDP China in the region of 4.0–4.5%. We have an increased intensity of structural transformations, primarily due to the almost zero level of investment. Under this scenario, the decline in GDP will be 1.5–2.5%. Under the variant of the global crisis, similar to the situation in 2008-2009, the fall in GDP will be more pronounced – up to 5-6%. If we compare the probabilities of the two scenarios, there are more chances for the first, mild option.

2. It would be ideal if the dollar at the end of the year was worth no more than 70 rub. If this does not happen, investment imports will be blocked and domestic capital investments will be hindered. To be an optimist, my broad forecast is 65–75 rubles/$, but the probability of a corridor is higher – 70–75 rubles/$.

3. Forecast by Brent price divided into two options. The first gives $90, the second is close to $100. Everything again depends on who will fall into a short recession and how things will develop in the global economy. Major players and analysts say that the price could reach $110 by the end of the year. My forecast is moderate – $95-100 by the end of the year. Urals is a little clear. The average discount for the ten months of 2022 is 22.4%, while in 2021 it was 4.2%. The 2023-2024 fiscal rule is de facto based on an equilibrium price of $60. If you look at the FOB price conditions on which our oil is currently traded: without insurance and mandatory shipment, but not delivery, then it is very likely that in 2023 the price of Urals will be close to the level of the budget rule.

4. Everything is more clear here, there will be a decrease in the annual inflation compared to 2022 to the level of 6.0–6.8%. The first half of the year is a sharp downtrend due to the fact that the base effect will work and so on, and then a mild increase from the second half of the year. I am somewhat pushing the corridor of the forecast of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation – 5.7%, taking into account the basic scenario for the development of the world economy. But I will make a reservation, all the previous words concerned the base model. If there is a scenario of the “great recession” of 2008-2009, we will collapse much more strongly.

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Sergei Suverov, investment strategist of Arikapital Management Company:

1. Fall GDP can be quite moderate at the end of the year – in the region of 1-2%. The economy will be supported by the growth of investments by state-owned companies, in particular Gazprom, as well as relatively stable volumes of hydrocarbon production. However, consumer activity of the population will be low.

2. Ruble may noticeably weaken by the end of the year, perhaps to 75–80 rubles/$. This will be facilitated by the reduction of the trade surplus of the Russian Federation against the backdrop of sanctions restrictions on the supply of Russian hydrocarbons and the discount of Russian Urals oil to Brent. Also, the budget deficit will become a trigger for the weakening of the ruble. In addition, the authorities are unlikely to prevent the devaluation.

3. Oil price may be about $75-80 per barrel of Brent by the end of the year. The main factor is the decline in business activity in developed countries, which will negatively affect global demand for hydrocarbons. Moreover, there is a risk of a global recession. However, OPEC+’s production control policy will be a stabilizing factor for oil prices.

4. Inflation in Russia, most likely, will remain at elevated values, but will be less than in 2022. The main factor behind inflation, which could reach 7-8% by the end of the year, will be the likely weakening of the ruble. Also, pro-inflationary factors will be an increase in utility tariffs and a low competitive environment in the Russian economy.

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Evgeny Kogan, investment banker, professor at the National Research University Higher School of Economics:

1. At the end of 2022, a decrease GDP may be less than 3%. That’s not a lot. They feared a 5–6% fall six months ago. However, do not forget: we include in the composition of GDP the sharply increased figures for the military industry. In 2023, we will most likely sink more — by 3-4%, maybe even 5%. But no more. Another thing is that the methodology for calculating GDP requires rethinking and reassessment.

2. In serious failures ruble I do not believe, but there may be a short-term drawdown. At the end of 2023, we may see ruble levels between 80 and 90. At least there is a chance for that. However, I think that higher levels for the ruble are still possible for a long time – for example, 67-75 rubles / $. And on average, the ruble will hang out in this range for a long time. Most of all, I fear secondary sanctions that will hit those who actively interact with Russia.

3. Brent oil price will dance in the region of $75–95. But the volatility will be insane. That is, sometimes we will see ups and $ 100-120. And we will see the fall. And up to $60 and below. Painfully, the situation in the world is unstable. And the only question is how much the world itself will withstand these stresses.

4. Inflation at the end of the year 2023, most likely, it will be low – 6-8%. Again, though, these are current expectations. There is a high chance that as a result of a whole set of events, the Central Bank will be forced to raise the rate a little. So far, the situation appears to be relatively stable.

Group “Direct speech”