Eastern Europe has reinstated the embargo on grain imports from Ukraine

Three of the four EU countries bordering Ukraine in Eastern Europe – Poland, Hungary and Slovakia – extended the embargo on the import of Ukrainian grain that expired on September 15. This happened immediately after the European Commission (EC) lifted its restrictions. Only Bulgaria announced a decision not to extend the embargo: the country’s parliament voted for this on September 15.

Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, even before the publication of the EC decision, stated that they would extend the ban unilaterally if the EU did not extend it. On September 15, Budapest banned the import of grain, vegetables, meat products, eggs and honey from Ukraine – a total of 24 types of products listed in the publication of the state “Bulletin of Official Information”. An exception is made for transit if the goods will stay in the country for no more than 15 days. The period for which the restrictions are introduced is not specified. Bulgaria’s decision not to extend the ban caused “regret” among the Hungarian authorities, as cheap Ukrainian products are harming farmers in the region. On September 16, the head of the Bulgarian government, Nikolai Denkov, refused to negotiate with agricultural producers who intend to organize protests against the lifting of the embargo on the supply of Ukrainian grain to the country. Previously, the Ministry of Agriculture of Bulgaria, like the relevant departments of all other Eastern European countries, advocated extending the embargo.

Poland on September 16 reinstated the ban for an “indefinite period”, including cake and meal, but excluding wheat, corn and sunflower seeds needed for sowing. On the same day, Slovakia introduced a ban, saying that it would apply to the import of wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower seeds until at least the end of 2023, but it would also allow the transit of these goods further to third EU countries.

The Romanian authorities are the only ones of the five who have not yet made a clear decision, although a day before the EC refused to extend the restrictions, the country’s Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, Florin Barbu, spoke in favor of extending the ban on the import of Ukrainian grain crops. On September 16, the Romanian Alliance for Agriculture and Cooperation, which unites the main organizations of Romanian agricultural producers, demanded that the Romanian government and the parliamentary majority parties urgently adopt a regulatory act banning the import of Ukrainian agricultural products.

Ukraine agreed, in response to the EC’s refusal to extend the ban for 30 days, to introduce legal measures (including, for example, an export licensing system) to prevent the uncontrolled release of grain onto the market. The EC has stated that it will refrain from introducing any restrictions as long as effective measures from Ukraine are in place and fully operational. An agreement between five Eastern European states and the European Commission on a temporary ban on imports of Ukrainian grain was reached in May.

The EC has no other choice but to decide to extend the restrictions or leave everything as it is today – with unilateral bans and the possibility of transit, says Arkady Zlochevsky, President of the Russian Grain Union. According to the expert, the ban on the part of Poland, Hungary and Slovakia is quite understandable, since they are forced to protect their domestic market. “These countries have suffered damage, they are protecting their agricultural producers from further losses,” concluded Zlochevsky. Now, according to him, the situation has returned to what it was in April: the countries of Eastern Europe are now dealing with bans and permits themselves, transit is allowed, and Brussels has lost one of the control levers that it had after concluding an agreement with the relevant countries.

The decisive factors in this situation will be the results of the elections in Poland and the issue of the rights of ethnic Hungarians in Transcarpathia, believes Kirill Teremetsky, an expert at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. He believes that if the Law and Justice party remains in power in Poland, it will be difficult for the EC to convince Warsaw to abandon the restrictions. However, if the pro-European opposition is successful, Poland may take a course towards a more constructive dialogue with Brussels, Teremetsky admits. He emphasized the importance of the issue of respecting the rights of ethnic Hungarians in the western regions of Ukraine. If Kyiv does not present concrete solutions to this problem, and also does not lift restrictions on the Hungarian OTP Bank, Budapest will not make concessions on the issue of grain transit, the expert believes.

The lifting of restrictions by the EC can be explained by the prevalence of the “value approach,” says Vladislav Belov, head of the Center for Country Studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences. In this way, Brussels is trying to prove two things: its loyalty to Ukraine and the ability to act without help from Moscow after the termination of the grain deal. Belov also emphasized that the refusal of Bulgaria’s restrictions and the still unclear position of Romania are due to the fact that these countries cannot enter into a serious confrontation with the EC, since they do not have political and economic resources commensurate with Poland and Hungary.