Dollar for 85 rubles, euro for 93: experts gave forecasts for May

In April, the ruble behaved relatively calmly: after a sharp subsidence in the first week of the month, it fluctuated very slightly at the levels of 79-80 per dollar, 88-89 per euro. In May, this calm may end: moreover, a number of analysts are waiting for further weakening of the ruble, and some, on the contrary, are predicting a strengthening of its position against the dollar and the euro. “MK” asked experts to name the factors that can affect the national currency in May and give a forecast for the ruble for the last month of spring.

Vladimir Kovalev, TeleTrade analyst:

“There are many events and factors that may affect the ruble exchange rate in May. For example, the end of the April tax period in Russia with its support for the ruble exchange rate due to increased sales of foreign exchange earnings by exporters. One such event has already taken place: the meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on April 28 at the key rate. The decision turned out to be expected, the rate remained at the level of 7.5%, which will not actually affect the ruble. The decision of the US Federal Reserve on the interest rate may also affect the national currency rate. It is expected to increase from 5 to 5.25%. But the accompanying rhetoric of the American regulator is important. If it confirms expectations that the rate increase will be stopped in the future, this will greatly please the markets for raw materials and risky assets in general. And will put downward pressure on the dollar. In this case, oil prices and the ruble will receive support.

The publication of the results of the execution of the Russian budget for April may also affect the ruble. If it turns out that its deficit has decreased, then the national currency will receive additional support. And vice versa, the negative in relation to it will intensify in the event of an increase in the excess of expenses over income. The increase in the need for foreign currency for importers and tourists on the eve of summer is another factor in the weakening of the ruble. Do not forget about the general geopolitical background. With a noticeable increase in tension and uncertainty, the ruble may come under additional pressure.

These factors may be in opposite directions depending on the circumstances. Moreover, their dynamics and combination are unpredictable due to the high uncertainty and precariousness of the prerequisites. Therefore, the movement of the course can be multidirectional. It is most likely that the rate will mainly be in the range of 79-85 rubles per dollar and 86-93 rubles per euro.

Ivan Samoylenko, Managing Partner at B&C Agency:

“For the Russian national currency, one of the key events is the decision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the key rate. Since at the meeting on April 28 it was decided to leave it at the same level (7.5%), most likely, the ruble will react to this with a moderate decrease – the dollar and the euro can add up to 1 ruble.

The second key event is the entry into force on May 1, 2023 of the decision to reduce oil production within the framework of OPEC + (in total it will be 1.6 million barrels per day). Next week, for this reason, we can expect an increase in oil quotations, which the day before fell to the lowest levels for the year – $ 78 per barrel. In addition, on May 5, a meeting of ministers of the countries of the alliance will be held, where further measures to reduce the production of raw materials can be discussed. As the cartel predicts a recession and falling demand, OPEC+ may recommend further production cuts. At the same time, the cost of oil on the world market may go up, which will become a support factor for the ruble.

But the pressure on the currency will continue, as there are no trends to reduce the budget deficit yet. Therefore, the weakening of the ruble will continue, but it will be smooth and controlled. In May, the dollar may gradually add 2-3 rubles (to the level of 83-85.5 rubles), and the value of the euro will be at least 92 rubles.

Sergey Ramaninov, analyst at Markets. Money. Power”:

“One of the important factors is the decision of the Central Bank on the rate and, most importantly, the signal of the Central Bank about the further trajectory of the rate. Recently, one can often hear from members of the government and even from the president that our inflation is below the target values, and that the economy needs to develop. In general, this can be interpreted as arguments for lowering the rate. The Central Bank, by its decision, showed that it does not intend to reduce the rate, at least not yet. If, however, at the next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank, the rate is nevertheless lowered, then this will be one of the factors for the weakening of the ruble.

In the meantime, the ruble settled comfortably in a fairly narrow range of 81-82 rubles per dollar. For the economy, it is not so much a strong or weak ruble that is important as a stable and predictable one. In general, there is a feeling that the current exchange rate is balanced for both exporters and importers. The budget and exporters, as far as we understand, solve their problems at the current ruble exchange rate. Presidential aide Maxim Oreshkin said that the rest of the year the budget will be in surplus, and oil companies have begun to declare good dividends.

Therefore, it is very likely that in May the ruble against the dollar will remain in this narrow range of 81-82 rubles.

Fedor Sidorov, private investor, founder of the School of Practical Investing:

“For the Russian national currency, the weakening trend against the dollar and the euro continues, primarily due to the reduction in export earnings against the backdrop of cheaper oil. Raw materials are falling in price due to fears of a global recession, which means that this trend can be long-term.

Accordingly, the cost of Russian oil will also decrease. At the same time, there are growing threats that our international partners will reduce purchases. India, for example, is now beginning to control the process of transferring funds through local banks: transactions must comply with the conditions of the “price ceiling” imposed by the West. The reduction in oil revenues will contribute to the growth of the budget deficit, and in order to fill it, it will be necessary to lower the ruble exchange rate.

In May, the dollar will go up and may reach the level of 83-85 rubles, and the euro will most likely exceed 90 rubles per unit.