Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for November 17-18 – Finance – Kommersant
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The American currency continues its systematic retreat in the Russian market. As a result of Wednesday’s trading, the dollar rate on the Moscow Exchange amounted to 60.35 rubles/$, which is 18 kopecks lower than on Friday. The strong position of the ruble is facilitated by the weakness of the American on the world market, high oil prices, as well as the growing supply of foreign currency from exporters.
;
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (rub/$) |
|---|---|
| BCS World of Investments | 58.50-62.50 |
| Russian Standard Bank | 60.50-62.00 |
| Expobank | 60.00-62.00 |
| Bank Zenith | 60.00-61.00 |
| PSB | 59.00-61.00 |
| Consensus forecast * | 60.65 |
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts
Support for the Russian currency still comes from exporters
The ruble reacts poorly to geopolitical news. Support for the Russian currency continues to come from exporters. Judging by the latest data, the volume of oil sales from the Russian Federation to the EU in anticipation of restrictions is high, which ensures the inflow of foreign currency. The November tax period that started until the end of the month will require payments of 1.5 trillion rubles, which is 20% less than in October. However, given the “thin market” and minimal speculative activity, these payments are able to support the ruble exchange rates as early as the beginning of next week.
The approaching peak of the tax period in November can act as support
The dollar slightly increased volatility and set its sights on a downward trajectory. The ruble may expect increased volatility against the background of the escalation of the geopolitical situation. As a support, the approaching peak of the November tax period can act as a support. In the discussion area of the world market – news about the acceleration of annual inflation in the UK in October to a record for 41 years 11.1% from 10.1% in September. As well as the statement of the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, that the European Union is ready for the prospects of setting a ceiling on prices for Russian oil. In the coming days, the development of the situation in the foreign policy field, where tension has noticeably increased, will continue to be in the center of increased attention.
The ruble was supported by a relatively favorable external background
The dollar exchange rate this week made attempts to test the lower limit of the range of 60-61 rubles, but could not gain a foothold below it. The positions of the ruble were supported by a relatively favorable external background, as well as the approaching tax period. Geopolitical risks, as well as local activation of importers in the market, acted as a counterweight. According to our estimates, the dollar in the second half of the week will continue to trade in the range of 60-61 rubles. with attempts to go beyond the lower limit. We do not observe obvious drivers for a change in dynamics. Of the important, we highlight the Friday speech of the head of the ECB, against which the European currency will be able to make another attempt to grow and exit above the mark of 63 rubles.
External economic and geopolitical negative has practically no effect on the positions of the Russian currency
Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar by the end of this week is 59-62 rubles/$. The pattern of dynamics in the currency pair remains stable. The ruble is beginning to receive support from companies preparing for the tax period. Positive also comes from the ruble debt market. On Wednesday, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation placed bonds worth a record 823 billion rubles at three auctions, which indicates an actively growing demand for government bonds. At the same time, the external economic and geopolitical negative has practically no effect on the positions of the Russian currency. The probability of a temporary drop of the dollar under the mark of 60 rubles/$ remains high in the short term.
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