Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for June 12–16
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The exchange rate of the dollar completed the past week with a steady growth in the Russian currency market. Following the results of Friday’s trading on the Moscow Exchange, the US currency closed at 82.63 rubles/$, which is more than 1.1 rubles. higher than the values of the end of the previous week and only 87 kopecks. below the local maximum set in the first decade of April. There were several reasons for the weakness of the Russian ruble, including the fall in oil prices and the decrease in the currency entering the country, the growth in demand for it from the population and foreign companies leaving the country.
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (rub/$) |
|---|---|
| Bank Zenith | 82.00 |
| BCS World of Investments | 80.50-83.50 |
| Russian Standard Bank | 81.00-83.00 |
| PSB | 85.00 |
| Expobank | 80.50-83.50 |
| Consensus forecast * | 82.60 |
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts
We do not see strong drivers for the strengthening of the ruble
At the moment, the US currency was testing the mark of 83 rubles. Against the background of the beginning of the month, the activity of exporters in the market is minimal (participants keep export earnings abroad, including by investing in foreign government bonds), while demand among importers and the population remains stable. We do not see strong drivers for ruble strengthening. We believe that the growth of the dollar will continue with a target of 85 rubles. The strengthening of the dollar will rather be of a smooth nature due to the relatively strong fundamental value of the ruble.
By the end of the month, the ruble may be supported by the sale of foreign exchange earnings by exporters
The activation of foreign exchange sales in the second half of June, as well as further prospects for expanding Russian exports to China, can support the ruble exchange rate. At the same time, the decline in oil prices contributed to the weakening of the position of the Russian ruble. The regulator’s decision to leave the key rate unchanged was expected by the market and did not affect the national currency rate. Against the backdrop of the start of the summer holiday season, the ruble may be under pressure from the increased demand of Russians for foreign currency for travel abroad. By the end of the month, the ruble may be supported by the sale of foreign exchange earnings by exporters. The further situation in the currency market continues to be significantly influenced by the rhetoric of the world information field.
The key event of the coming week will be the Fed meeting
Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar next week is 80.5–83.5. After the April recession, oil prices are kept at relatively low levels. The influx of foreign exchange earnings into the country cannot comfortably meet the demand from recovered imports. Let’s add increased budget spending and sharp geopolitics. All these factors put pressure on the national currency. The decision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to extend the monetary pause will not fundamentally affect the positions of the ruble. The Fed meeting will be the key event of the upcoming week. If the regulator leaves rates unchanged, the probability of such an outcome, according to the Fed Watch Tool, is 75%, the dollar will retreat from local highs, giving commodities and currencies of developing countries a chance to strengthen their positions.
Low activity of the domestic foreign exchange market increases the reaction to local capital outflows
The ruble continues to gradually lose ground against the backdrop of increased tensions from the geopolitical background. Nevertheless, the current limits of the volatility of the Russian currency look moderate relative to the medium-term dynamics. The ruble may be supported by a number of factors, such as an increase in the volume of currency purchases under the budget rule or the approach of the June tax period. However, the low activity of the domestic foreign exchange market increases the reaction to local capital outflows, which may lead to a short-term weakening of the ruble to lows of 83.5 rubles/$.
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