Experts predicted an increase in ice cream production in 2023

According to the results of 2023, the volume of ice cream production may grow, analysts of the Center for Industry Expertise of the Russian Agricultural Bank predict. In their opinion, the output of this type of dairy product will increase by 1.9% to 477,000 tons. At the same time, in 2022, compared to 2021, the output decreased by 10% to 470,000 tons, according to Rosstat data.

The main reasons for the predicted growth in demand in Rosselkhozbank are the expansion of taste diversity, the development of fast delivery services, as well as the emergence of a low-calorie fitness product category. According to them, the consumption of ice cream in Russia in 2023 will increase from 3.1 to 3.3 kg per person, and then continue to grow and reach 4.4 kg by the end of 2030.

Alexei Gruzdev, head of Sterda Consulting, considers this forecast to be quite realistic, agreeing that ice cream does have potential for consumption growth. But the key factor on which the dynamics of the market will depend is the situation with the income of the population, Gruzdev notes: “This is not a product of first necessity, and with a decrease and even stagnation of income, some consumers will be forced to refuse to buy it.”

Production growth is possible, which is demonstrated by the first four months of 2023, points out the head of the Institute for the Development of Entrepreneurship and Economics, Natalya Nazarova. According to the results of four months, the production of ice cream increased by 2% to 160,000 tons, according to monitoring data from Soyuzmolok. But the risks associated with the supply of production equipment and ingredients from countries that have joined the sanctions against Russia may become an obstacle, Nazarova notes.

The disruption of supply chains and the increase in the cost of packaging and ingredients due to sanctions last year were the main reason for the decline in production, according to the Center for Industry Expertise of the Russian Agricultural Bank. The relatively cold summer also had a negative effect on consumption.

In 2022, the industry really faced an increase in production costs, says Soyuzmolok CEO Artem Belov. In his opinion, the contraction in 2022 was largely due to the high base effect of a record 2021 and last year’s unusually cool summer.

The decline in demand in 2022 provoked a sharp increase in ice cream prices, Gruzdev is sure. According to him, against the backdrop of sanctions and fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate, ice cream makers raised prices in advance and, as it turned out later, “a little overdone”, which led to a decrease in consumption in natural units. According to Rosstat, from February to April 2022, the cost of ice cream increased by 10% to 610.34 rubles. per kg, while for the same period in 2021 – by 1.7% to 488.53 rubles. per kg. In April 2023, ice cream costs 688.45 rubles. per kg, which is 12.7% more than a year earlier.

In addition to domestic consumption, Russian ice cream retains an export potential, but on the condition that Russia manages to promptly renew its refrigeration fleet and solve the problem of limiting banking transactions, Nazarova believes. The main promising markets for Russian products are in Asia and the Far East, says Andrey Dalnov, head of the Center for Industry Expertise at Rosselkhozbank. Thus, China imported $103 million worth of ice cream in 2022.

Russian producers sold $15.4 million worth of ice cream abroad in 2022, 44% of which was in Kazakhstan.