Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for February 19–25
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The dollar ended last week with a significant strengthening of its position on the Russian market. According to the results of Friday trading, the US currency exchange rate was 92.2 rubles/$, which is 1.3 rubles. higher than the closing values of the previous week. The “bearish” game is facilitated by the growth of its exchange rate on the world market, as well as increased demand for foreign currency from private and institutional market participants.
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (RUB/$) |
|---|---|
| Bank Zenit | 92.00 |
| “BCS World of Investments” | 90.00-93.00 |
| “Tsifra Bank” | 90.60-95.00 |
| Russian Standard Bank | 91.00-93.00 |
| PSB | 89.50-91.50 |
| Consensus forecast * | 91.76 |
* Consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic average of analysts’ forecasts
Against the national currency – the situation on the energy market
In the coming week, the ruble can traditionally be supported by the approaching peak of tax payments, which will expand the supply of currency on the market. The decision on the key rate is unlikely to have a noticeable short-term impact on the position of the Russian ruble, since this is already included in the expectations of players. Meanwhile, statistics confirming a decrease in inflation expectations of Russians in February to 11.9% from 12.7% in January serve as a positive background. And also statements that the ruble took a record share in the Russian Federation’s payments for imports of goods from America and Africa. Meanwhile, against the national currency is the situation in the energy market, where oil prices are under pressure from the news of a noticeable increase in US reserves last week.
Next week the ruble may trade in a wide range of 90.6–95 rubles/$
At Friday’s meeting, the Bank of Russia kept the key rate unchanged, which was expected. This is a negative factor for the ruble and puts pressure on the national currency. The ruble has begun to weaken against a basket of world currencies, and if the ruble, which has emerged from a long-term flat trend, manages to gain a foothold above the level of 93.5 rubles per US dollar, further weakening of the national currency to 95 rubles/$ cannot be ruled out. Next week the ruble may trade in a wide range of 90.6–95 rubles/$.
By the end of the month the dollar may return closer to 90
The reasons for Friday’s weakness of the ruble could be the strengthening of the dollar against major currencies and the news background. According to the published CPI index, manufacturing inflation in the United States, as well as consumer inflation, grew stronger than expected in January. Against this background, the DXY index increased sharply. We believe that the devaluation impulse in the ruble will not develop in the near future. Firstly, the barrier is set by a tight monetary policy course, which will continue in the coming months. The results of the Central Bank meeting reinforced confidence in this. In addition, temporary control over the sale of export proceeds and foreign exchange interventions by the regulator will stabilize the exchange rate. Finally, next week exporters will begin to prepare for the tax period, purchasing rubles in advance for fiscal payments at the end of the month. The dollar could return closer to 90 by the end of the month.
The results of the meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation look neutral for the ruble
The dollar/ruble exchange rate approached the upper limit of the medium-term volatility range, despite the high level of oil prices and the absence of short-term risks. The weakening of the ruble is likely occurring against the backdrop of an internal shortage of yuan due to holidays in China and the lack of exchange transactions with swaps in Chinese currency. The results of the meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation look neutral for the ruble, however, an increase in the forecast for the average annual key rate for 2024–2025 makes ruble investments more attractive.
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