Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for February 1–2
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For the first time since the beginning of the year, the exchange rate of the dollar closed above the level of 90 rubles/$. At the end of Wednesday’s trading, it amounted to 90.02 rubles/$, which is almost 30 kopecks higher than Friday’s closing values. The bearish play against the Russian currency is being waged by market participants against the backdrop of the end of the tax period, which has reduced the supply of export earnings.
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (RUB/$) |
|---|---|
| PSB | 88.50-90.50 |
| “BCS World of Investments” | 88.00-91.00 |
| Russian Standard Bank | 88.50-90.50 |
| “Tsifra Bank” | 92.80 |
| Bank Zenit | 89.00 |
| Expobank | 88.50-90.50 |
| Consensus forecast * | 89.97 |
* Consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic average of analysts’ forecasts
The end of the tax period will put pressure on the national currency
In the coming week, the ruble will most likely remain trading in the range of 88-91 rubles. per US dollar. The end of the tax period will put pressure on the national currency, however, currency sales by the Bank of Russia should cope with such pressure. The volume of such sales is more than 10% of the average daily turnover in the ruble-yuan pair for the entire last year, which is significant for containing volatility.
The approach of February 6 is not in favor of the ruble
The end of the tax period could put pressure on the ruble as it gives confidence to strategies aimed at weakening the national currency. The approach of February 6 is not in favor of the ruble; after this date, the volume of currency supply from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation within the framework of the updated budget rule is likely to decrease. The persistence of moderately high oil prices, as well as seasonally strong fundamental factors, remain positive.
Capital outflow continues to play against the ruble
Adding optimism to the ruble is the news that the IMF has increased its forecast for Russian GDP growth for 2023 from 1.1% to 2.6%. The market is also following the statements of the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation that the regulator sees “room to reduce the key rate this year.” The introduction of the digital ruble, which can also become a factor in supporting the national currency, is again in the spotlight amid discussions of market interest in the regulator’s pilot. Capital outflow, export instability and geopolitics continue to play against the ruble. Among the news that calms the energy, and with it the currency markets, are statistics on record Russian gas supplies to “friendly countries” in 2023. The position of the dollar can be changed by a fresh decision by the US Federal Reserve on the rate, and the euro is being pressured by less optimistic than expected statistics on the business sentiment index in the Eurozone in January and the business climate in industry.
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