Dollar, euro and yuan have updated annual highs

On April 7, during trading on the Moscow Exchange, for the first time in a year, the US dollar exchange rate exceeded 83 rubles, the euro – 90 rubles, and the yuan – 12 rubles. Stanislav Bovt, a financial analyst at the CMS group of companies, told Moskovskaya Pravda why the Russian currency sank in price and how investors should behave now.

According to the expert, the current weakening of the ruble is due to several factors, including a decrease in energy exports, an increase in parallel imports, the end of the tax period for Russian companies, and plus the purchase of a large amount of foreign currency by one of the major players – Shell, which is leaving Russia. In addition, the psychological moment cannot be discounted.

– I want to remind you that back in January 2016, the dollar exchange rate soared to 85 rubles. The fall at that time was associated with a sharp decline in oil prices, which fell to $27 per barrel, Stanislav Bovt said. – What happened to the ruble in March last year is not a market aspect, it is rather a force majeure. The markets have changed drastically in seven years, but traders have a good memory and, in addition, they have charts in front of their eyes. The high of seven years ago is a powerful resistance level and the 85 level is very close now. Forecasts are not a thankful task, but it seems to me that this year the market will test the level of 85 rubles per dollar. The euro, in turn, will try to storm the level of 93 rubles.

As for forecasts that the dollar and euro will be above 100 rubles, the expert believes that this is unlikely to happen in the near future. The regulator, if necessary, will say its weighty word at the right time in order to prevent sharp jumps in the exchange rate.

The current rise in the yuan is also quite understandable. The demand for China’s currency is determined by the factors already listed, as well as a sharp increase in trade between our countries and the interest of private investors, as a result of which the yuan has become the third currency in the country after the ruble and the dollar.

– Regarding the purchase of currency today, I would like to say the following: an attempt to jump into a train that has picked up speed can end in big trouble. Sharp stock market ups and downs, as history shows, can suddenly change direction. It seems to me that we need to be patient and observe the situation from the outside, – said Stanislav Bovt.

So, apparently, it is not worth rushing to buy currency, as it was a little more than a year ago. After all, many already have a sad experience when the currency bought at 150 rubles per dollar then had to be sold almost three times cheaper.

Alena Bodrienko.

Photo by Alexander Avilov / Moskva Agency