Developed countries diverged in growth rates – Newspaper Kommersant No. 216 (7417) dated 11/22/2022

The real GDP of countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in the third quarter of this year increased by 0.4% compared to the previous three months, in annual terms, the growth was 3.3%. The rates of quarterly growth of the economies of these countries have remained weak for three quarters – in the second quarter, the increase was 0.5%, in the first – 0.3%. Nevertheless, as a result, the total GDP of the OECD countries exceeded the pre-pandemic level (the fourth quarter of 2019) by 3.7%.

In the third quarter, the US economy returned to growth by 0.6% (1.8% yoy) after contracting in the first quarter by 0.4% and in the second by 0.1%. In Germany, growth accelerated from 0.1% in April-June to 0.3% in the third quarter (y-o-y, the figure slowed down from 1.7% to 1.1%). In Italy, growth slowed from 1.1% to 0.5% (from 5% to 2.6% in annual terms), in France – from 0.5% to 0.2% (from 4.2% to 1% ). In general, in the countries of the euro area, the growth rate of economies slowed down from 0.8% to 0.2% (year-on-year – from 4.3% to 2.1%). In Canada, GDP in the third quarter increased by 0.4% against 0.8% in the second (year-on-year slowed down from 4.6% to 3.6%), in the UK it decreased by 0.2% after an increase of 0. 2% (year-on-year GDP growth slowed down from 4.2% to 2.4%).

Separately, the OECD provided data on the economies of countries close to Ukraine. Their GDP dynamics was uneven: the Polish economy grew by 0.9% in the third quarter after falling by 2.4% a quarter earlier, the GDP of Latvia and Slovenia decreased by 1.7% and 1.4%, respectively, Hungary – by 0, four%. At the same time, Slovakia’s GDP is growing by 0.3% for the fourth quarter in a row. The strongest growth among all OECD countries was recorded in Mexico (plus 1.8%), Colombia (plus 1.6%) and Norway (plus 1.5%), the most pronounced decline in GDP occurred in Chile – minus 1.2%.

The OECD notes that for the G7 countries, the main factor that influenced growth rates was world trade – in the United States, the return to positive GDP dynamics was ensured precisely by the contribution of net exports of goods (exports increased by 4%, while imports decreased by 2.3%). In the UK, exports increased by 14.7% while imports fell by 5%, but the effect was offset by a reduction in domestic demand. In France and Japan, net exports, on the contrary, had a negative impact on GDP dynamics.

Tatyana Edovina